2023 Wyndham Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for Sedgefield Country Club
The irony of the PGA Tour entertains me on a weekly basis. Somewhere between the ridiculous and the sublime, we find ourselves finishing another wraparound season on one of the Tour’s oldest venues. The Wyndham Championship began as the Greater Greensboro Open in 1938. Sedgefield Country Club is about to host the tournament for the 40th time in the event's 85-year history.
Located just outside Greensboro, N.C., the traditional Donald Ross design will determine who qualifies for the FedEx Cup playoffs. Considering all the conversations on length, bifurcation of rules and the drama that surrounds both, we find ourselves deciding PGA Tour careers on a golf course that barely measures over 7,100 yards. Even though the average winning score is 19 under par over the last decade, very few fans ever complain about the ending of the Wyndham Championship.
One of the sensational storylines each year starts with the winner. Seven of the last 10 champions have started the tournament with winning odds over +5000 (50-1). Half of the last 10 winners held pre-tournament odds over +10000 (100-1)! What makes Wyndham such a volatile event also makes it incredibly compelling to watch. Anyone in the 156-man field can win.
The top 125 players on the FedEx Cup points list used to make it into the playoffs. In one of the many reactions to LIV Golf, the Tour changed the qualifying number to the top 70. Currently that cutoff excludes the likes of major names such as Adam Scott, Gary Woodland, Joel Dahmen and 2022 PGA champion Justin Thomas. When you consider the depth of the PGA Tour talent pool, the top 70 does not extend very far.
The tournament within the tournament is all about getting inside that playoff parameter. Fifteen years ago, the Wyndham was on life support and now it resides as the Tour’s ICU. Those in critical condition like Thomas need this tournament to survive. And after all the designated purses, major championship venues and elite fields, the year breaks down to one question: Can you contend on one of the most positional putting contests on the PGA Tour?
The weather in Greensboro has been great for growing grass. Temperatures are seasonal in the mid-80s and a little rain is expected during the tournament. We don’t need softer conditions on a course where 20 under par is already the target score. Contenders will need to convert birdie opportunities to win this shootout. Over the past 10 years, the winners have gained more strokes on the greens than is any other major strokes-gained category. Seven of the last 10 Sunday success stories have gained over four strokes with their flatstick.
The perfect complement to a hot putter is a great wedge game in Greensboro. Nearly 50% of approach shots will come with a wedge or scoring iron in hand. Proximity to the hole from 150 yards creates 15-to-20 foot birdie chances. Our winner will need to create 35 or more of those opportunities in order to accumulate 20 under par. With nine par-4s under 450 yards and two reachable par-5s, four or five players will get there.
Most handicappers look directly toward the Detroit Golf Club for a correlation to Sedgefield success. Both are designed by Donald Ross, but past the putting I don’t see the same skill set needed. I’m looking at courses like Colonial and Innisbrook instead, positional courses that require a very specific game plan off the tee, radar-like wedges and a professional putter. As a PGA Professional, I have spent over a decade working at Donald Ross courses. In that time, I have learned you cannot fake it on Ross green complexes.
Our Win, Place, and Show for the Wyndham Championship involves all these elements. Contending this week also accounts for an ability to handle extra pressure. Facing a career-changing moment can be difficult and handling it even more so. Follow these best bets and enjoy the drama in Greensboro this weekend. When the qualifying number was 125 the FedEx Cup points were always close. I can’t even begin to imagine the size of the separation someone will face on Sunday afternoon after these final four rounds when they go home until next year.
Win: Sam Burns
Sam Burns makes the most sense to me this week. When it comes to positional Bermudagrass golf courses, he always excels. Whether it is Colonial, Innisbrook or the Country Club of Jackson, he always seems to contend. Take the driver out of his hand, prioritize putting and Burns climbs the leaderboard. Gaining three strokes against the field over his last five starts, Sam is playing solid golf. There’s no doubt warm weather will fire him up in the south, but not nearly as much as making the Ryder Cup team. That extra motivation and his putter is why I love him to win this week. Take Sam Burns (+2500 SI Sportsbook) to win the Wyndham Championship.
Last week's pick: Lucas Glover didn't win, or make the cut for that matter. Sigh.
Place: J.T. Poston
J.T. Poston was not a good fit for the 3M Open and he still finished in second place. Poston has always delivered with the flatstick, but on his recent run the ball striking has been comparable to his propensity for making putts. The 2019 Wyndham winner has three top 10s in his last five PGA Tour starts gaining over six and half strokes against the field. Take J.T. Poston to finish Top 20 (+180 SI Sportsbook).
Last week's pick: Sepp Straka was a top-20 pick but missed the cut, a surprise given his strong July.
Showdown: Brendon Todd over Gary Woodland
Gary Woodland has only gained strokes putting in two events this year. Sedgefield is all about handling these green complexes. Brendon Todd on the other hand is an excellent putter and thrives on positional courses. Woodland’s weakness against Todd’s strength seems too much of a hurdle to overcome in this tournament matchup. Take Brendon Todd over Gary Woodland H2H (-120 Draftkings).
Last week's pick: An 0-for-3 3M Open was rounded out with Cameron Young missing the cut when we had him beating Tony Finau (T7).
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Russell Henley +2000
Si Woo Kim +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Denny McCarthy +2500
Sam Burns +2500
Shane Lowry +2800
J.T. Poston +3000
Aaron Rai +3300
Adam Scott +3300
Justin Thomas +3300
Ludvig Aberg +3500
Stephan Jaeger +3500
Adam Hadwin +4000
Alex Smalley +4000
Byeong Hun An +4000
Cam Davis +4000
J.J. Spaun +4000
Beau Hossler +4500
Taylor Moore +4500
Billy Horschel +5000
Brendon Todd +5000
Chris Kirk +5000
Harris English +5000
Patrick Rodgers +5000
Thomas Detry +5000