2026 PGA Championship Betting Models, Picks: A 750-1 Longshot Who’s Actually Worth a Look

Our expert likes a proven major champ but also a man playing in his very first major.

Xander Schauffele | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

The second major championship of the season takes us to Aronimink Golf Club, just outside Philadelphia, for the 2026 PGA Championship. This will only be the second time that Aronimink has hosted a men’s major championship and the first time in many of our lifetimes. And that presents an interesting test. 

Aronimink, which previously hosted the 1962 PGA Championship won by Gary Player, is a Donald Ross design that underwent a renovation in 2018 from Gil Hanse and Jim Wagner that originally opened in 1896. It’s a par-70 that measures 7,394 yards on the scorecard. But the test itself, which we most recently saw at the 2018 BMW Championship, is one throughout the bag. Ball-striking will be pivotal, but so too will be navigating the trademark Ross green complexes with tough chips and undulating surfaces. 

So that means we have a spread-out model for the 2026 PGA Championship, but that also means that a longshot could find its way into the mix this week when it comes to our picks for Aronimink—a big one!

Key Stats for Aronimink Golf Club

Strokes-gained tee-to-green over last 24 rounds

When talking about a complete test, I do think it’s going to start with tee-to-green play, which means we have to be looking at the guys who have been making noise in that department of late. 

1. Jon Rahm (+2.387)
2. Alex Fitzpatrick (2.167)
3. Cameron Young (2.143)
4. Patrick Reed (2.081)
5. Matt Fitzpatrick (2.041)

Strokes-gained in majors (last 24 major rounds)

One of the best indicators of future major championship success is past major success, particularly of late. It’s not foolproof, but it absolutely does matter, which is why we have it as a substantial part of the model. 

1. Scottie Scheffler (+2.563)
2. Xander Schauffele (2.096)
3. Rory McIlroy (1.976)
4. Alex Fitzpatrick (1.930)
5. Collin Morikawa (1.861)

Strokes-gained putting on bentgrass in the last 24 rounds

It’s a change in putting surface back to bentgrass this week, and Aronimink’s greens are one of its defining features. Being able to find success on the Ross-designed complexes will be critical to determining a winner. 

1. Braden Shattuck (+1.206)
2. Alex Fitzpatrick (1.080)
3. Daniel Brown (0.940)
4. Tyler Collet (0.919)
5. David Puig (0.892)

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

Our old friend, strokes-gained approach. The premium on ball-striking doesn’t go anywhere just because it’s a major. It’s just maybe a slightly less piece of the pie than it is on most weeks when it comes to a more balanced test like Aronimink.

1. Alex Fitzpatrick (+1.490)
2. Bernd Wiesberger (1.214)
3. Collin Morikawa (1.140)
4. Patrick Reed (1.071)
5. Brooks Koepka (1.053)

PGA Championship model rankings

For what I’ll again describe as a balanced test at Aronimink, that means we have a lot baked into the model. It starts with strokes-gained tee to green (15%) with the heaviest weight before a weighty but balanced mix of strokes-gained majors, strokes-gained approach, strokes-gained putting on bentgrass, strokes-gained total and strokes-gained off the tee in the last 24 rounds (10% each). We then have smaller pieces with proximity from 150-175 yards (8%), scrambling (6%), strokes-gained around the green (5%), bogey avoidance (5%), sand saves (5%) and finally history at comp courses with East Lake, Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields (2% each). Here’s how the top 10 in the model shakes out after that. 

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Ludvig Åberg
3. Matt Fitzpatrick
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Scottie Scheffler
6. Cameron Young
7. Collin Morikawa
8. Jon Rahm
9. Patrick Cantlay
10. Tommy Fleetwood

2026 PGA Championship picks

Xander Schauffele +2000 (Bet365)

Xander Schauffele has been a rock in major championships of late. He’s only finished outside of the top 10 in two of his last nine starts in a major, a streak that includes two wins in 2024 as well. Now he comes in with some good signs, especially for a test being described as throughout the bag. 

Schauffele is 16th in strokes-gained tee to green and 11th in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds coming into Aronimink, but also has top 25 putting on bentgrass, top 20 bogey avoidance and scrambling and strong history at comparable courses. Not to mention, he’s also eighth in proximity from 150–175 yards. 

One of the trademarks of the X-Man is his lack of a weakness in his game. I think this is the type of test that plays right into that and could net him his second Wanamaker Trophy. 

Ludvig Åberg +2000 (FanDuel)

If nothing else, I’m going to stick to my guns. And my guns are telling me that Ludvig Åberg is simply playing too well, particularly with his tee-to-green play, to not think that he’s going to win a big tournament sooner rather than later. It’s just maddening that we haven’t already gotten there this season. 

Åberg is eighth in both strokes-gained tee to green and approach over the last 24 rounds while also being top five in scrambling on top of that. Quietly, he’s also 18th in proximity from 150–175 yards as well, and we’ve also seen him already make noise on a major championship stage in his young career. Oh, and let’s not forget the fact that he’s finished top 5 in four of his last six starts, top 8 in five of his last six, and no worse than T21 in his last six starts. 

He’s been knocking on the door continuously, and that might not mean he wins this week, but it should mean you have a chance going into Sunday with how he’s hitting it right now.  

Mikael Lindberg +75000 (DraftKings)

We’ve got two guys near the top of the odds board, so let’s go completely off it to wrap us up with Mikael Lindberg. Who? Exactly—but that’s why there might be some enticing value when it comes to the 35-year-old playing in his first major. 

We only have six measured rounds from Lindberg, but they’re impressive as he’d rank first in strokes-gained off the tee and fourth in strokes-gained tee to green if he had more rounds playing at this level, not to mention 20th in strokes-gained approach. He’s also coming in after a third-place finish and a win on the DP World Tour’s Asian Swing, which is how he got into the tournament. 

It’s a small sample size for a guy without much data on him. But we’ve seen madness at the PGA Championship before (See: Phil at Kiawah), and why not think that Lindberg might be riding a life-changing hot streak that carries him to success this week?

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.