Why Rory McIlroy May Stay Stuck on Five Majors

The SI Golf staff continues to preview the new season and ponders whether Rory McIlroy will add to his major count one year after bagging the career Grand Slam.

Rory McIlroy got his long-awaited green jacket last year, will he find more major success in 2026? / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Are you ready for the 2026 golf season?

More than three months have passed since the Ryder Cup, four months since the Tour Championship and—gasp!—five months since the British Open, the last major championship of 2025.

SI Golf is previewing the new year, from the PGA Tour to LIV Golf and more. So far we have predicted the major champions, debated whether world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler will bag another PGA Tour Player of the Year award and today we ask if Rory McIlroy will add to his major count one year after completing the career Grand Slam.

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Fact or Fiction: Rory McIlroy completed the career Grand Slam with the 2025 Masters and will continue to add to his count by winning a major in 2026.

Bob Harig: FICTION. While it wouldn’t be a surprise if McIlroy won a major in 2026, the feeling here is that he’s still dealing with climbing that big mountain again. Is he as motivated to go after it? Repeating at Augusta is never easy and Aronimink for the PGA is tough to gauge. McIlroy missed the cut at Shinnecock in 2018 although he was at a stage where he struggled with the tournament and has been far better since. He was fourth at Birkdale in 2017 so clearly he’s had some success there. So much of this depends on McIlroy himself.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. McIlroy played great at the end of 2025 after drifting through summer following his win at Augusta. He could very well win another major this year and I certainly expect him to contend—but after such a long drought to win major No. 5, I think he may have to wait a bit longer for his next one.

Rory McIlroy ended his 2025 major season with an emotional T7 in front of adoring Irish fans at Royal Portrush. / Mike Frey-Imagn Images

Max Schreiber: FICTION. He has the talent to do so, but it seems his drive has weakened since winning the Masters. That doesn’t mean he isn’t trying to win when he tees it up, but others might just want it more. 

John Schwarb: FICTION. None of us picked McIlroy in our 2026 major predictions so at least we’re consistent. I’m not dissing to say he won’t bag a big one, for starters I think that No. 1 Scottie Scheffler claims one or two so that immediately means fewer to go around. And how about this: McIlroy ranked 177th in driving accuracy out of 180 players last year on Tour. Even with how far he hits it, gotta think spraying it won’t help at a place like Shinnecock.

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