Florida High School Football Open Division: Predicting the Eight-Team Field Before Nov. 6

Carrollwood Day and Miami Central are separated by just 0.12 points in the published FHSAA playoff ratings. Our prediction gives the final Open Division spot to the unbeaten Patriots.

That is one of two departures from the eligible-team order in the ratings snapshot used here. We also place Raines fifth, ahead of Lakeland, giving greater weight to the Vikings’ unbeaten record and their win over Venice.

The forecast considers schedule strength, points scored and allowed, scoring consistency and results against leading opponents. It is an editorial prediction informed by those measures. The official field and seeds will be determined through the FHSAA’s selection process.

Open Division Prediction

1. St. Thomas Aquinas (10–0)

FHSAA rating: 102.40; schedule strength: 50.6; points scored: 445; points allowed: 105; average margin: +34.0.

Aquinas has the most complete argument for the top seed: an unbeaten record, a 50.6 schedule-strength figure, and victories over two other projected qualifiers.

The Raiders beat Columbus 31–24 and Chaminade-Madonna 21–20. Those results distinguish their case from one built entirely on comfortable wins over weaker opponents.

Their broader scoring profile remains convincing, with averages of 44.5 points scored and 10.5 allowed. A median margin of 41.5 points shows that dominance extends beyond one unusually large victory. Aquinas also won both games decided by eight points or fewer.

2. Columbus (9–1)

FHSAA rating: 97.48; schedule strength: 47.8; points scored: 401; points allowed: 103; average margin: +29.8.

Columbus combines a 40.1-point scoring average with a defense allowing 10.3 per game. Its 33–28 victory over Bishop Gorman adds an out-of-state result to a schedule that also included Aquinas and Miami Central.

The Explorers’ only defeat came by seven points against the projected No. 1 seed. They subsequently beat Central 28–3 and Northwestern 30–7, finishing their listed regular-season schedule on a seven-game winning streak.

Columbus begins 1.04 rating points ahead of West Boca. Its slightly higher schedule-strength figure, 47.8 against 46.4, supports retaining that order despite the Bulls’ stronger raw defensive numbers.

3. West Boca Raton (9–1)

FHSAA rating: 96.44; schedule strength: 46.4; points scored: 339; points allowed: 46; average margin: +29.3.

West Boca’s defense supplies the clearest statistical reason it could challenge for a higher seed. The Bulls have allowed 46 points across 10 recorded results, an average of 4.6, with five shutouts.

They have scored 88.1% of the combined points in their games. Their only loss was 15–14 against St. John’s, while victories over American Heritage and Cardinal Newman strengthen their case.

The published schedule now includes the 17–10 win over The First Academy, bringing West Boca to 9–1 rather than the 8–1 shown in the ratings snapshot. That suspended contest also illustrates why the Bulls’ scoring averages should not be treated as measures of performance per full game or possession.

4. Chaminade-Madonna (8–2)

FHSAA rating: 92.45; schedule strength: 55.7; points scored: 354; points allowed: 159; average margin: +19.5.

Chaminade-Madonna has the hardest listed schedule among these eight projected qualifiers, with a 55.7 strength figure. That helps explain why the Lions remain ahead of several teams with fewer losses and larger scoring margins.

Their defeats came against Sierra Canyon and Aquinas, with the latter decided by one point. Chaminade also beat American Heritage 46–27, a larger margin against a common opponent than Lakeland’s 21–16 victory.

The Lions’ closing stretch adds another consideration: they won their final four games while allowing eight points per outing. Their overall average margin of 19.5 points understates that recent defensive improvement, though the season’s full results remain the basis of the projection.

5. Raines (10–0)

FHSAA rating: 87.71; schedule strength: 40.3; points scored: 371; points allowed: 107; average margin: +26.4.

Raines takes fifth in our projection on the strength of an unbeaten season and its 20–17 home victory over Venice. Lakeland lost to the Indians 32–25 in double overtime, providing a useful common-opponent comparison between teams that did not meet.

The Vikings also beat Mandarin and Cocoa while allowing 10.7 points per game. Their plus-26.4 average margin shows they paired significant wins with consistent scoring separation.

This is our more aggressive seeding prediction. Raines trails Lakeland by 3.64 rating points, so reaching fifth would require a substantial change in the final computer order. The Vikings’ unbeaten record and win over Venice are the reasons for our pick, rather than a claim that those results automatically override the published ratings.

6. Lakeland (9–1)

FHSAA rating: 91.35; schedule strength: 41.7; points scored: 388; points allowed: 88; average margin: +30.0.

Lakeland’s strongest argument is its defensive consistency. The Dreadnaughts allow 8.8 points per game and have recorded three shutouts, including a 35–0 victory over The First Academy to close their listed regular-season schedule.

They have won eight straight, with a median margin of 34.5 points across the season. A victory over American Heritage adds a result against strong opposition.

Their schedule-strength figure and scoring differential both exceed Raines’, explaining why the computer order favors Lakeland. Those numbers also support keeping the Dreadnaughts above Venice in our projection despite their head-to-head loss: Lakeland has faced a more demanding overall schedule while allowing substantially fewer points.

7. Venice (9–1)

FHSAA rating: 87.69; schedule strength: 38.8; points scored: 496; points allowed: 201; average margin: +29.5.

Venice averages 49.6 points per game, second only to Carrollwood Day among our projected eight. Its victories include a 32–25 double-overtime win over Lakeland and a 42–40 overtime win at Rabun Gap-Nacoochee.

The defensive comparison is less favorable. Venice has surrendered 201 points, or 20.1 per game, considerably more than Raines or Lakeland.

Its 38.8 schedule-strength figure is also the second-lowest in this projected field. The Indians have shown enough offensive production and demonstrated they can beat a projected qualifier, but their loss to Raines and less demanding overall schedule support a placement near the bottom of the eight.

8. Carrollwood Day (10–0)

FHSAA rating: 87.38; schedule strength: 37.2; points scored: 545; points allowed: 68; average margin: +47.7.

Carrollwood Day gets our final projected berth because its unbeaten record comes with sustained dominance, including a convincing closing victory against another contender.

The Patriots average 54.5 points scored and 6.8 allowed. Their median margin is 46 points, and they have accounted for 88.9% of the scoring in their games. Those figures show repeated control of games across the season.

The 28–14 win at Cardinal Newman matters in this comparison, as does the 63–21 victory over Jacksonville Trinity Christian. Meanwhile, Miami Central lost two of its final three games, falling 28–3 to Columbus and 27–10 to Carol City.

The strongest argument against this pick is schedule strength: Carrollwood Day’s 37.2 figure trails Central’s 48.3. The Patriots also remain 0.12 rating points behind the Rockets in the published snapshot.

We give Carrollwood Day the edge in our prediction, recognizing that its stronger scoring profile came against weaker opposition. The existing computer order still favors Central; the Patriots would need to move ahead in the final ratings to claim the berth.

The official field will be announced during the FHSAA’s bracket reveal at 5 p.m. ET Friday, Nov. 6.

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