The Jon Lester regression has set in, so bettors should take advantage of a lower than expected total in Cubs-Pirates.

By Kenny Ducey
August 16, 2018

Our other MLB betting expert, Gabriel Baumgaertner, is on vacation until Sunday, so Kenny Ducey is picking up the slack with Thursday's picks. He's eyeing a couple day baseball affairs as well as an over featuring a strong regression candidate on the hill. Here are his top bets, with the current odds from William Hill listed.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays: OVER 8 Runs (-115)

Masahiro Tanaka is a huge over guy, so I'm confident the Rays will be able to come through against him. On the other side, I don't worry too much about this Yankees lineup—finally hitting Miguel Andujar No. 3—scratching out a couple against Blake Snell, who struggled in his last start in the Bronx. We might have to sweat here, but an offensive breakout feels imminent.

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves: Rockies ML (-116)

I got this at -115 and it's going to climb higher. Jon Gray vs. Julio Teheran is a no-brainer for me. Gray is back as hell and Teheran sucks. That's how we bet, baby.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates: OVER 8.5 Runs (-110)

The Jon Lester regression has set in, so let's take advantage of this low-ish total. Both these teams provided the hits yesterday, and they should continue making solid contact with two hittable pitchers on the hill tonight.

Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals: Nationals ML (+115)

Look, betting the Nats right now seems like a foolish thing to do. I get it. But, hear me out! Washington has shown a ton of heart in all these games, not going quietly, and I think this could be a good spot for them to finally get a win and turn things around as we head into the home stretch of the season. Luke Weaver isn't very good, and Tanner Roark has been somewhat of a stopper a few times this season. I think we could see an inspired performance from this Nationals team, but then again, it's the Nats. If you're feeling lucky, take this.

Records: Kenny Ducey 4-4-1, Gabriel Baumgaertner 4-5-1

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