Welcome to the 3 at 3, where our MLB expert, Gabriel Baumgaertner, will give you his three favorite baseball bets on the day (via current odds from William Hill) at 3:00 p.m. EST. Today, he even has a bonus fourth pick.
Oakland Athletics at Baltimore Orioles: OVER 9 Runs (-115), A’s -1.5 (-115)
The A’s have scored six runs or more in eight of their last nine game (seven or more in seven of their last nine) and head to a hitter-friendly environment in Baltimore. Despite his seemingly gruesome stats (4.97 ERA, 24 homers allowed in 26 starts), Baltimore starter Alex Cobb has been very effective since the All-Star Break (a 2.96 ERA in nine starts). The problem is that he remains very prone to give up the long ball and is facing one of MLB’s most complete lineups. Even if the Baltimore offense is punchless, Camden Yards is one of the most over-friendly parks in the big leagues. If you’re loath to bet an over with a team as bad as the Orioles, the A’s should win this game handily with the exact same odds.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds: OVER 8.5 Runs (-115)
The two teams played to a 10-6 showdown last night, and the Reds have tallied 35 runs over their last four games. The Dodgers’ starting pitching and bullpen have improved recently, but Hyun-jin Ryu can suffer through early-inning fits, and Cincinnati has the kind of balanced offense to make him struggle. Reds starter Luis Castillo somehow pitches better at the Great American Ballpark than he does on the road, but he’s surrendered 13 homers there in 13 starts, and the Dodgers are one of the most powerful teams in the National League.
The Reds’ pitching staff is another one that encourages an over bet, so these combined factors should make 8.5 an easy threshold to clear.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs: Brewers ML +110
This one is a value pick. Both teams are playing very well of late, but the Brewers are silencing good offenses with little trouble and receiving just enough clutch hitting to keep them in the hunt for the NL Central. This is, more than the other two, a guess bet. I just want to ride the hot hand when the value is this good.