These MLB Teams Could Make the Playoffs. Really.

These teams “stunk” last year, but could benefit from a 28-year postseason trend.

What if I told you that when it comes to picking postseason teams, there is a trend that has held true for 17 straight years and 27 of the 28 years of the wild-card era? You would not make the common mistake this time of year of picking nothing but winning teams from last year to fill your playoff bracket this time around.

Except for 2005, every postseason since 1995 has included at least one team that bounced back from a losing record the previous season—usually more. The count is up to 64 teams in 28 seasons that have pulled off this turnaround, an average of 2.3 surprise teams each year. The trend continued last year with the Guardians (turning around from 80–82), Mets (77–85) and Padres (79–83).

Rest assured, the 12 best teams on paper right now are not all going to the postseason. One or two teams that stunk last year are going to the playoffs.

How can we help identify these surprise teams? The two biggest factors in this 28-year trend are:

1. Improved run prevention.
2. A change in managers.

Thirty-eight percent of the 64 turnaround teams had a new manager. With that helpful hint, here are the most likely surprise playoff teams this year.

Texas Rangers (68–94)

This is a long shot because of how far they must improve. In 28 years, only eight playoff teams turned around from 94 or more losses (full seasons only). But with a change in managers (Bruce Bochy), a major upgrade in run prevention (Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney), the major’s worst record in one-run games that is bound to improve (15–35) and the ban on shifts (no team saw more of them), Texas has the right profile.

Minnesota Twins (78–84)

Count on better run prevention with Christian Vázquez behind the plate, Pablo López joining the rotation, and Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober taking steps forward with their electric fastballs. They could win the AL Central.

Arizona Diamondbacks (74–88)

A young, athletic team without much depth, Arizona has one of the wider range of outcomes this season. The bullpen has been historically bad for two seasons (a two-year record 82 losses out of the pen), so there must be improvement there. The D-Backs’ chances come down to how they develop rotation depth among Drey Jameson, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Henry and Brandon Pfaadt.

Boston Red Sox (78–84)

They could be No. 1 on this list except for the quality of their division and the many age and injury questions that lurk. They need to be better than the Rays and Orioles—not an easy task. Boston took a lot of deserved heat for their odd offseason, but they still have Rafael Devers, Chris Sale and Masataka Yoshida—who looks like a pure hitting machine—and a sharp manager in Alex Cora.

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