Drastic Pivot Could Await Astros Regardless of Playoff Outcome

The Houston Astros are in a fight for their playoff lives, but the warts exposed in 2025 could cause a drastic shift in their future plans.

Aug 1, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown speaks with media before the game against the Cleveland Guardians at Minute Maid Park. | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

With the season's final days upon them, the battered and bruised Houston Astros are in the fight of their lives to sneak into the playoffs. After 118 days in first place of the AL West and at one point commanding a seven-game lead in the division, the Astros now find themselves four games behind the Seattle Mariners.

To make matters worse, Houston currently sits one game behind the plummeting Detroit Tigers for the final American League wild card spot. The collapse might not be as drastic as what is going on in Detroit, but it should serve as a wake-up call for general manager Dana Brown and the rest of the organization.

Injuries have played a major role, but even factoring those in, the Astros' second-half performance has exposed warts that can't be easily ignored. Regardless of whether or not Houston can sneak into the playoffs, and regardless of how the team performs there, it faces a major reckoning come the offseason.

Astros Might Need To Accept Their Dynasty Has Come To An End

Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

For the better part of the last decade, the Astros have been one of the most successful teams in the league. From 2017 onward, Houston has won seven AL West crowns, four American League pennants and two World Series championships.

However, regardless of 2025's ultimate outcome, Michael Shapiro of Chron.com believes the dynasty is over and that Houston should pivot to a rebuild this offseason.

"Even the most orange-tinted-glasses, sign-stealing-denying Astros fan will readily admit the chase for the 2025 championship is all but finished. But why the pessimism about future seasons? Take a wide lens at Houston's organization, and a concerning picture appears," Shapiro wrote. "Houston's pitching staff next year will keep staff ace Hunter Brown, but almost certainly lose No. 2 starter Framber Valdez in free agency this winter. It's hard to find a single reliable starter for 2026 besides Brown ... Want a new star to rise from the minors? Don't count on it."

Astros have lost four straight games and are out of playoff position for the first time since May 25th pic.twitter.com/Dt44kysw8t

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 24, 2025

Shapiro is not wrong in his assessment that the roster, which has its deficiencies now, will have even more holes once the season ends and free agency commences. Owner Jim Crane has shown a reluctance to cross into any sort of luxury tax territory, and moves like the deadline deal for Carlos Correa only serve to further constrict Houston's spending power.

Worst of all, the farm system is barren. Years of attrition by virtue of dealing top prospects for veteran help to keep the window of contention open have been exacerbated by the sign-stealing scandal penalties the club incurred, further cutting off the Astros' pipeline of young, cheap talent.

At a certain point, the club will not be able to function without addressing its funnel for cost-controlled talent. That means that even in spite of an improbable run in the playoffs, Houston would be wise to enter a rebuild starting this offseason.