Analyzing Mental Side of Astros Starter Hayden Wesneski's Return in 2026

Although Houston Astros right-hander Hayden Wesneski should be medically cleared to pitch later in this season, will he mentally be there?

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski throws a pitch | Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

Hayden Wesneski is a Houston native. He's adored baseball since he was a kid and after a trade from the Chicago Cubs, is now playing for the team he grew up rooting for in the Houston Astros. If that isn't a kids dream I'm not sure what is.

Wesneski made his MLB debut with the Cubs, the 28-year-old developed on a team seeking to find its identity following the complete tear down of the 2016 World Series core six years ago. He spent his first few years in the majors flipping back and forth in the bullpen and the rotation.

Now on the team he rooted for growing up, the Houston native had something to prove. The Astros gave him the keys to make the starting rotation alongside fellow All-Stars Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown, both World Series champions.

Wesneski Falls To Tommy John

Houston Astros pitcher Hayden Wesneski delivers a pitch. | Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

After starting the 2025 season with six starts and a 4.50 ERA in 32 innings, the Cy Fair grad fell to elbow soreness, later leading to a UCL tear and a full reconstruction on his elbow. Baseball calls it the unfortunate "Tommy John" surgery. Often career-ending decades ago, it ranges from a minor to a major setback thanks to update medical technology and physical therapy. The underlying issue is that more pitchers are getting this surgery at record highs, with no possibility of decreasing.

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This procedure usually takes a little over a year to recover and rehab back to baseball athleticism. During Astros Fan Fest Wesneski spoke about how elbow surgery impacted his overall baseball routine, along with his status of returning to the team healthy to pitch:

Hayden Wesneski talking with Brice Matthews, Spencer Arrighetti, and Astros broadcaster Todd Kalas | Jeremy Gretzer- On SI

"I have to make new habits. I just havent yet" Wesneski mentioned. "I've basically gotten a brand new elbow. I am playing catch right now but whenever I throw the ball I literally have no control and I don't know where its going. "

It's a mental hurdle for a Major League pitcher to initially have solid control of arm angle, velocity, and accuracy of your pitches. Habits are made and routines are developed to keep maintaining that pitching arm sustainable. Then suddenly, the pitcher's forearm gets tight, and the worst case scenario happens, needing a completely reconstructed elbow.

Wesneski was given another year to prove himself, as he avoided arbitration for a return later in the 2026 season.

Previous Astros Victims To Tommy John

Just like Wesneski, Tommy John surgery has haunted many Astros pitchers before him. Lance McCullers Jr., the longtime Astro dating back to 2015, had UCL surgery in 2018. Tommy John began a series of injuries for McCullers that hindered him greatly from throwing a pitch on the mound. While he's expected to be healthy this year, it hasn't been since 2021 where McCullers pitched closed to a full season.

Cristian Javier was one of the more underrated arms in the rotation. Initial success came early on in his career in an Astros uniform since 2021. He was an integral piece to Houston's legendary World Series run in 2022. In 25 starts, Javier went 11-9 with a 2.54 ERA, 194 strikeouts, and 3.7 WAR across 30 appearances

After a rough 2023 season with major drops in his pitch velocity and spin rate on his fastball and slider, it became a precursor for grim things to come. The following year resulted in elbow surgery after a few promising starts.

Since returning last season, he hasn't been the same since, putting up below average numbers, going 2-4 a 4.52 ERA in eight starts. Other arms who recently suffered the injury are Ronel Blanco, Brandon Walter and Luis Garcia. Garcia is on his second Tommy John surgery without a team as the Astros waived him in the offseason.

Javier's case is likely due to rust and confidence. Having confidence in any profession goes a long way. The only recent Astros outlier who came back from Tommy John and surpassed expectations was a 39-year-old Justin Verlander.

Verlander The Outlier

Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander warming up | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

After winning the Cy Young award in 2019, Verlander had surgery in 2020 and spent the entire 2021 season recovering. He wanted to pitch as long as he possibly could in his career, so he took the safe route instead of returning in late 2021. Not only was he a core piece in 2022, Verlander was virtually the same pitcher. He was back to his confident self, putting up ace level numbers like he did before his surgery.

There's a mental standpoint within pitchers who undergo Tommy John, a phase often glossed over in recovery timelines. According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, Verlander purposely did not watch a single baseball game during his surgery and rehab. Moreover, he completely took himself out of baseball life a year and a half after the shortened 2020 season. Physically, he was fine, but he needed to clear his head away from baseball for another year. By then, he returned to Cy Young form, where he was physically, medically, and mentally ready to go.

The Mental State Of Pitchers And Tommy John

Over the years, younger ball players who dream of pitching on an MLB mound continuously throw harder with no end in sight. Between 2010-2019, there was a notable increase in Tommy John surgeries among youth athletes, according to Sara Berg of AMA News Wire. Before, this wasn't an ongoing issue. Nowadays, high schoolers now throw on average around the low 90s, nearly close to big leaguers who throw the hardest. This brings a cause for concern on early elbow strains and future UCL tears come more into question.

Since 2016, elbow surgeries for big league pitchers rose to 13%. Now, approximately 40% of them go under the knife heading into the 2026 season. A full reconstruction usually takes 10-12 months, depending on the body. How does the mental health of pitchers change throughout this process?

In the sports world, including baseball, stats are easier to discuss than the mental psyche that occurs within the player because it's easier to quantify, such as ERA, WAR, spin rate, velocity, etc. These numbers are easier to argue and rank, so they naturally dominate headlines and debates.

If a pitcher performs well during a number of games, then all of a sudden struggles for a period of time, the only way to define what caused this is the stats that explain it. Unless the pitcher comes forward, there's no externalized analysis on how or what caused the decline from a mental state.

Wesneski And Mental State

Going back to Wesneski's quote, his admission that he “has to make new habits” but “hasn’t yet” explains the disconnect pitchers can feel between a surgically repaired arm and the instincts they’ve relied on their entire careers. We as humans have brains that develop emotions. These emotions are connected to our mind, bones, and muscles. Paid athletes perform consistently due to tapping into confidence and muscle memory.

When a major injury happens, both of these factors are damaged. It's up to the person to rediscover that confidence in themselves. Therefore, a brand new elbow isn't just a medical procedure, it's a psychological one as well. Having to relearn control of the baseball requires not just a fully healthy arm, it requires having the confidence and the mental belief that you will get back to performing where you were prior to the major injury.

Theoretically, all of these factors have to be in sync to perform effectively. It's how Verlander did it, by spending 2020 in rehab, then taking another year off to get fully ready for his would be Cy Young season.

Not saying Wesneski is Verlander, but the process to getting back into top notch shape is similar, and what can be done to help him bounce back in 2026.