Astros Rotation Concerns Persist Despite Offseason Pitching Additions

The Houston Astros added three pitchers this offseason, but rotation concerns remain as the Astros chase a playoff return in 2026.

Oct 29, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros mascot, Orbit, waves an Astros flag after defeating the Philadelphia Phillies in game two of the 2022 World Series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Erik Williams-Imagn Images | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros added three new starters this winter, but it might not be enough. ESPN's latest breakdown still has Houston's rotation ranked 25th in projected ERA heading into the 2026 season.

The Astros went big on Tatsuya Imai, giving the Japanese right-hander a three-year deal worth up to $63 million after he dominated NPB with a 1.92 ERA and 178 strikeouts last season. They also picked up Mike Burrows in a three-team trade with Pittsburgh and signed Ryan Weiss, who put up a 2.87 ERA across 30 starts in Korea.​

The problem is none of these moves really replace what Framber Valdez brought to the top of the rotation. Hunter Brown is now the guy leading a group that includes Imai, Cristian Javier, Spencer Arrighetti, and the new faces competing alongside Lance McCullers Jr..​

The math isn't pretty. Houston's projected strikeout rate sits in the middle of the pack, which means more home runs and walks show up in the forecasts. They used 15 different starters last season and still have guys working back from Tommy John surgery.​

Manager Joe Espada's answer is using a six-man rotation for much of 2026, especially early when the schedule gets brutal with 26 games in the first 28 days. They'll roll it out Opening Day on March 26 against the Angels.​

Espada's plan makes sense when you break it down. Imai needs time to adjust from Japan's once-a-week routine, while Javier and McCullers both have injury red flags. Weiss has to prove his Korean numbers translate to the majors, and Burrows is coming off a 3.94 ERA season in Pittsburgh.​

The six-man approach shows Houston doesn't fully trust a traditional five-man setup. They're hoping development and depth can make up for not landing another ace. The good news is the bullpen should be elite again this year with Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu leading the way, which helps cover for starter issues.​

Astros Playoff Chances

Dana Brown | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

ESPN has the Astros projected for 86 wins with a 54% chance at the playoffs. That's assuming the rotation performs near its pessimistic projections. If the starters can just be league-average behind Brown, Houston should get back to October comfortably.​

The offense creates some risk too. Jose Altuve and Christian Walker are the veteran anchors, but both are aging and any dropoff combined with pitching struggles could tank the season. The Astros need their pitchers to beat expectations, not just meet them.​

The rotation battle will play out in spring training as guys compete for the final spots. Houston chose to go deep instead of splashing cash on another proven ace. How that strategy plays out will shape their entire season.