Houston Astros Need To Be Wary of Regression From Star Pitcher This Season

The Houston Astros have dominated headlines this offseason for the amount of talent the team has lost.

A lot of attention has been given to the lineup, which no longer features All-Stars Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman.

The talented right fielder was traded to the Chicago Cubs, while the star third baseman signed a three-year, $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox in free agency, creating two sizable voids in the batting order.

Outfield was already a need for the Astros before moving on from Tucker. They will fill third base with Isaac Paredes, who was acquired as part of the trade package from the Cubs.

With Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz and free agent signing Christian Walker, the lineup still has some firepower to work with. But where the team has some serious question marks heading into spring training is within the pitching staff.

One of the players they will be relying on heavily is Ronel Blanco, who surprised everyone with his performance in 2024.

A replacement for the injured Justin Verlander, he stepped right into the legend's spot in the rotation and started with a bang.

In his first start of the campaign, he fired a no-hitter and then followed it up with six more shutout innings in his second start.

With Verlander moving on in free agency, agreeing to a deal with the San Francisco Giants, and Yusei Kikuchi also departing this offseason, Blanco is locked into a rotation spot behind ace Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown.

However, there are real concerns that a regression to the mean is coming for Blanco in 2025, as he made the 10 biggest bust candidate list for pitchers put together by Joel Reuter of Bleacher Report.

He still profiles as a solid starter for the upcoming campaign, but expectations could be too high since he is preparing to take over as the No. 3 starter based on his underlying statistics from 2024.

His FIP and expected ERA of 4.15 and 4.00 don’t match up with his actual ERA of 2.80, which is a red flag. The lowest batting average on balls in play recorded by a pitcher was .220, which Blanco was the owner of.

Natural regression from that level of good luck is fair to expect, which would lead to a spike in his ERA.

Some pitchers possess the natural stuff to overcome such a correction, but Blanco does not fall into that category.

He was pedestrian in most batted-ball statistics, which hints that Lady Luck was on his side more often than not.

Houston has a remarkable track record of helping pitchers adjust game plans and get the most out of their stuff, so they could find some ways for Blanco to adjust his game plan to avoid his production falling off too much in 2025.

But with more tape out on him now, opponents have more data to work with, putting him into the prime regression category this year.

Recommended Articles