Houston Astros Star Has One Knock Against Him in Search of Lucrative Extension

The Houston Astros saw a ton of talent leave the franchise this past winter, including four players who were key contributors to their most recent World Series championship in 2022.

Right fielder Kyle Tucker and reliever Ryan Pressly were both traded to the Chicago Cubs in separate deals. Third baseman Alex Bregman signed a free agent deal with the Boston Red Sox. Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander took his talents to the San Francisco Giants.

Moving on from homegrown stars is never an easy thing to do, but it is something the Astros have gotten used to over the last few years.

Prior to Tucker and Bregman’s departures, the same thing happened with George Springer and Carlos Correa.

It will be interesting to see how things unfold with their ace, Framber Valdez, as he is playing out the final year of his contract in 2025.

He has been incredibly consistent over the last few seasons, turning into one of the most reliable front-end starters in baseball.

Valdez has made at least 28 starts in three consecutive campaigns, throwing at least 178 innings. 2019, when he made 18 out of his 26 appearances out of the bullpen, was the only year where he recorded an ERA over 3.57.

A two-time All-Star, he has finished in the top nine of the Cy Young Award voting in three straight campaigns, appearing on the MVP ballot in 2022 and 2024, as well.

Not an overpowering pitcher by any means, averaging only 8.8 K/9 in his career, he excels with pinpoint control and limiting damaging contact.

Opponents have an OPS of only .640 against him in his career, and he has a home run rate of 2.0% which is well below the league average of 3.2%.

His greatest strength is keeping the ball on the ground, inducing ground balls at a 62.2% clip - well above the league average of 42.6%.

As long as a good defensive infield is behind Valdez, he will find success since opponents struggle to put the ball in the air consistently against him.

Given his pedigree and track record, the ace has put himself in a position to earn a lot of money with his next contract.

Durability is as important as any skill for a pitcher and Valdez possesses that in spades.

However, there is one thing working against him in his quest to maximize his earnings; his age.

“Valdez has had just as much success as [Dylan] Cease and [Zac] Gallen; the issue for him is he’s two years older than those guys. Starters who hit the open market entering their age-32 season seldom sign for more than three or four years,” wrote Tim Britton of The Athletic (subscription required).

There are exceptions, and in this case, it is winning a Cy Young Award.

Zack Greinke, CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee all landed contract extensions longer than the three or four years Britton suggested when they had some hardware to bring to the negotiating table.

Valdez does not have that, but the MLB writer does believe the Houston star is going to strike it rich with a hypothetical extension.

On top of the $18 million he will be making in 2025, a four-year extension has been projected that will in total be a five-year, $134 million deal.

That would put his AAV at $29 million, a number he is worthy of since his style of pitching should age gracefully by not relying on overpowering stuff and flamethrowing velocity.

Whether he gets that deal will be seen.

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