One Stat to Explain Why Astros Have Faith in Hunter Brown as Future Ace

The Houston Astros are handing over the top of the rotation to Hunter Brown and there is a good reason why.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros aren’t paying much mind to Framber Valdez, their left-handed free agent. The feeling may be mutual.

Valdez is looking for a multi-year deal worth nine figures. The Astros tend not to hand out those kinds of deals. Even closer Josh Hader only got $95 million over five years and he was a top-of-the-market closer two offseasons ago.

Another reason may be the emergence of right-hander Hunter Brown, who is now seen as the staff’s ace going into 2026. Houston appears to have put their faith in him to anchor the staff and, most likely, serve as the team’s opening-day starter. One statistic explains why.

Brown’s Big Number

Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

MLB.com’s Sarah Langs put together a piece for the end of 2025 that highlighted one cool statistic for each team. For the Astros, she picked Brown and a stat that should make the Astros feel great as an organization — his 32.2% hard hit rate. Langs noted that it was “…the second-lowest among the 151 pitchers to allow at least 250 batted balls this season, behind only Ranger Suárez (31.1%).”

Hard-hit rate is an analytic that helps show how well pitchers are at avoiding hitters squaring up on their pitches. That is also reflected in other advanced analytics, including his chase rate (29.4%, 63rd percentile), whiff rate (27.4%, 71st percentile), strikeout rate (28.3%, 85th percentile) and barrel rate (5.9%, 85th percentile), per Baseball Savant.

Brown had a brilliant season in 2025, as he went 12-9 with a 2.43 ERA in 31 starts. He struck out 206 hitters and walked 57, as he pitched a career-best 185.1 innings for a rotation that was beset by injuries all season. He was named an All-Star for the first time and finished third in the American League Cy Young voting. That helped get Houston a prospect performance incentive pick that will be sandwiched between the first and second rounds in July’s draft.

Brown is now three full seasons into a Major League career in which he is 36-31 with a 3.49 ERA, with 585 strikeouts and 179 walks in 531.1 innings. He’s arbitration-eligible for the first time this year, and that’s another reason why Houston is putting its faith in Brown. The Astros can control his costs for the next three seasons. Per MLB Trade Rumors, he’s due $5.7 million in arbitration for 2026. But those costs will go up if he continues to pitch as he did in 2025.

Houston could also attempt to get Brown into a team-friendly extension to act as a bridge from arbitration to free agency, something the franchise has done on occasion, most notably for Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. For now, the numbers favor doing the same for Brown.