The Case For Astros to Extend Star Pitcher Hunter Brown Right Now

The better Hunter Brown becomes, the harder it will be for the Astros to keep him once he hits free agency

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Retaining key players for the Houston Astros has been tumultuous to say the least. Each time a player receives All-Star recognition or MVP status, or is just straight up valuable to a team, their value increases. This becomes especially impactful if the player is under team control.

Once those years are up and the player continues to produce effectively, the team has to make a big decision: Should they pay up to keep the player long term, or find a way to capitalize on the player's value by initiating a trade?

An Undisputed Ace

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Enter Hunter Brown. He's been an undisputed ace for the Astros pitching rotation since the middle of the 2024 season. Last season saw him earn his first All-Star nod and Cy Young contention. A campaign consisting of a 2.43 ERA, 206 strikeouts, and 21 quality starts, Brown was dominant.

Putting up these numbers at 27 years old, fans and the organization knew the kid from Detroit has potential to turn into one of the best pitchers from the Astros development since debuting in 2022.

In a perfect world, it's a no brainer for Houston to keep Brown as the anchor of the starting pitching rotation. Why wouldn't they? Overall, he's been durable, improving year after year, and he's entering his prime.

Astros Not Discussing Extensions With Brown

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Unfortunately, no contract extensions have been discussed since dating back to the beginning of 2025, according to Chandler Rome of The Athletic (subscription required). After Brown turned into a budding ace alongside Framber Valdez in 2024, Brown hired agent Scott Boras, known for steering players towards big free agency deals.

As of this year's Winter Meetings, according to Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle, Boras mentioned "we'll certainly listen to what they [Astros] have to say," when asked about Brown's possible contract extensions with Houston.

Mo' Money Mo' Problems

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The issue, as always, is money. The Astros, given their history, display an adamant nature on a hybrid Moneyball, prioritizing young prospects and signing low risk pieces and short term flexibility on their valuable players. It's why they've given long-ish low risk deals to pitchers Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr.

To credit their philosophy, yes, it's worked. While Javier and McCullers were both invaluable at their peak, they've been a non factor for the majority of their extension years since 2023 due to impactful injuries.

Houston clearly avoids suffering huge monetary losses because they don't operate like the Washington Nationals did with Stephen Strasburg or what the Los Angeles Angels did with Anthony Rendon.

Still, it's more enticing from a player and agent standpoint if a team like the Phillies, Mets, Yankees, or Dodgers throw in a long term deal over $200 million. Sometimes bending the rules is needed.

Brown hasn't dealt with the injury bug and has elevated his performance year after year. He potentially receives Gerrit Cole type of money if he continues putting up these types of numbers and more.

With Dylan Cease signing his big $210 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, how much will Brown be worth when he hits free agency in 2028?

How Much Longer Can The Astros Keep Doing This?

For the most part, practicing this method has paid dividends. Houston has made the playoffs nine times between 2015-2024 while letting go of All-Stars, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Gerrit Cole, George Springer throughout this run. Framber Valdez looks to be the next valuable player on his way out. On paper, that type of loss usually cripples a teams postseason momentum, falling into obscurity.

Nevertheless, the Astros still remain relevant, even after snapping their playoff streak last season. So if the Astros keep this method of playing, not signing these valuable pieces to long term deals, what say that this won't matter and they'll yet find another way remain "inevitable"?

Brown Situation Should Be An Exception

Here's the thing: Letting Brown go or trading him away while he is value is high won't help the team. Pitching has been a main factor to the Astros recent success. In the nine years making the playoffs, seven of them have the Astros spotting a sub-4 ERA. Pitching has arguably been the more important aspect of the Astros success. It's understandable to let go of Pena once he hits free agency in 2027, but it is certainly questionable to give Brown the same treatment.

Unless a team is struggling, a Cy Young-type pitcher is not to be stalled on contract extensions. Brown's tenure in Houston is now on borrowed time. It would behoove the Astros mission to get back to the postseason and conduct possible contract extensions with their All-Star in the near future.

Either give the money their ace deserves, or strike when the iron is hot before it reaches it's boiling point. Brown is a free agent in the 2028 offseason. Time is ticking.