Stats Breakdown Highlights Good and Bad of Astros' Early 2026 Season

A deep dive into the early numbers reveals encouraging offensive signs and troubling pitching woes for the Houston Astros.

Houston Astros hat and glove in the dugout | William Purnell-Imagn Images

At 9-16 and owning the worst record in the American League West, it's no secret that the Houston Astros have not gotten out to the start they hoped for this season.

The Astros' offense hasn't been the problem. They currently rank second in baseball in OPS (.790) and tied for second in runs scored (135). Unfortunately, the club's injury-marred pitching simply hasn't enjoyed the same success.

Houston ace Hunter Brown made just two starts before getting shut down with a shoulder strain, while Cristian Javier, Tatsuya Imai and Nate Pearson all remain sidelined as well.

Obviously, the only number that truly counts here is the Astros' 9-16 record (and maybe the 4.5 games they trail the division-leading Athletics). However, ESPN recently released a dive into some early stats that highlight the 'Jekyll and Hyde'-like first month of the MLB season for Houston.

The Good: Smith's Offensive Breakthrough

Houston Astros right fielder Cam Smith | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

While Yordan Alvarez's MVP-caliber campaign has drawn the bulk of the attention to date, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel placed a focus on the 78 mph bat speed of 23-year-old outfielder Cam Smith, who joined the Astros from the Chicago Cubs in late 2024 as the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker trade.

Smith, the 14th over-all selection of the 2024 draft, carries plenty of potential and is now showcasing some of the necessary tools to realize that promise. Although his early numbers (.250 /.337/.417 with three home runs and 11 RBI) don't particularly stand out, they are perfectly solid and, most importantly, his bat speed offers an encouraging outlook on what's to come.

As McDaniel notes, Smith has ranked among the most statistically unlucky major leaguers thus far this season. Fortunately, an increase in bat speed by 3.5mph from last season has given him the fourth-fastest bat in baseball. And while a bat speed increase would typically align with more strikeouts and wild swings, his contact rates have improved while his swing angle is better optimized for power.

In other words, it seems that it's only a matter of time for Smith before he reaches a new level offensively.

The Bad: Astros' Pitching Woes

Houston Astros starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai | Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

Pitching was always going to be an area of concern for Houston entering 2026. Framber Valdez and his team-best 13 wins in 2025 departed for Detroit, leaving Brown and a mixed bag of depth options that the club hoped would be enough to offset his loss.

In place of Valdez, the Astros acquired Mike Burrows via trade, brought in Tatsuya Imai from Japan and signed Ryan Weiss and Nate Pearson. They joined holdovers Lance McCullers Jr., Spencer Arrighetti and Javier as part of the rotation mix.

Quite simply, it hasn't worked. Brown's injury has only exacerbated the uncertainty around a starting unit without any clear anchor. In the stats piece, ESPN's Alden Gonzalez points to Houston's 6.19 ERA (since improved to 6.05), which ranks last in the majors by more than half a run per game.

Imai and Javier have managed only three starts apiece, with both men struggling mightily when healthy. Burrows has made all five starts, albeit while sporting a 6.75 ERA. Likewise for McCullers Jr., who owns a 6.20 ERA as he continues to put his grueling recovery from flexor tendon surgery in 2023 behind him.

Imai (arm fatigue), Javier (shoulder strain), Pearson (elbow surgery recovery) and, most notably, Brown are all expected to return at varying points to bolster the Astros' starting depth. But as the team continues to struggle and the return of their injured pitchers (save for Brown) offers no guaranteed fixes, it's fair to wonder if this pitching staff just can't offer enough to help balance out their offensive attack.

The numbers don't lie, for better or worse. While Houston can probably anticipate some exciting things to come in the future of Smith, their pitching doesn't offer the same optimism.