Houston Astros Head to Sacramento with A's Looking to Gain Ground
The Athletics are coming off a sweep of the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, a feat they hadn't achieved since they swept the Chicago White Sox in April. They hadn't even won three in a row since April 30-May 2, beating the Texas Rangers twice, and then the Miami Marlins for the third. On the year, the A's sit at 29-44 after an awful month of May pretty much tanked the season.
On the flip side, the Houston Astros, who swept the A's in a quick two-game series at the end of May, are entering this series in West Sacramento at 41-30, 4.5 games up in the AL West, and 13 games above the A's. They're also on a five-game win streak and have won eight of their last ten.
If the Athletics want to hold onto any hope of potentially challenging for a spot in the postseason (yes, it's June), then they'll have to produce a good showing against the rival Astros. That means at the very least splitting the upcoming four-game series.
A's get a bit lucky
When the A's and Astros last matched up, they were tasked with facing one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, Hunter Brown. The 26-year-old is 8-3 this season with a 1.88 ERA over 86 innings, and in his start against the A's he gave up one run over six frames.
This time around, the A's will be missing him, which is fairly hard to do in a four-game series. Chalk it up to luck. Instead, the pitching matchups will look like this:
Monday: JP Sears (5-5, 5.08) vs. Lance McCullers Jr. (1-2, 4.91)
Tuesday: TBD vs. Ryan Gusto (4-3, 4.56).
This one could be started by J.T. Ginn (1-2, 5.60), who has been in Triple-A on a rehab assignment, but he's also struggled with his efficiency in the big leagues of late, so they may want him to get one more start in the minors.
Jacob Lopez and Mitch Spence have also been pitching well for the A's in the rotation, and the club may not want to tinker too much with a pitching staff that's turning things around while still ranking No. 29 in ERA.
Tuesday will either be started by Ginn, pushing everyone back a day, or Mitch Spence (1-0, 0.90 in two starts in the rotation).
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Wednesday and Thursday's starters for the Athletics will be determined by what happens with Ginn on Tuesday. If Ginn goes, then Spence will get Wednesday, pushing Luis Severino back a day as well. If Ginn isn't called upon, then Severino (2-6, 4.47) would go Wednesday, with Lopez (1-4, 4.80) going Thursday, keeping everyone on regular rest.
Severino has been the AL Cy Young on the road, holding a 0.93 ERA away from Sacramento, but the Cy Yuck at home with a 7.10 ERA. With the A's bullpen rested and coming together with the returns of T.J. McFarland and Michael Kelly, manager Mark Kotsay may not need Severino to go as deep as possible at home anymore, which could lead to better results.
Lopez has been utterly dominant in three of his past five outings against the Phillies and Orioles at home, and this past weekend against the Royals on the road. Across those 17 innings of work, he's allowed just one earned run in those three outings, striking out 22.
The problem here is that after the Phillies start he allowed seven runs in 1 2/3 against the Blue Jays, and five runs in 4 1/3 as the bulk guy against the Twins before rebounding against the O's and Royals.
Regardless of whom the A's end up going with, the Astros are expected to throw out the all-too-familiar Framber Valdez (7-4, 3.10) on Wednesday, and Colton Gordon (2-1, 4.70) on Thursday. Valdez is a ground ball machine, which shoud play well at Sutter Health Park. This will be the A's first look at Gordon, but batters are hitting .296 against him this year, so the hope is that the A's offense can do some damage against the rookie.
Players to watch out for
On the year, the Astros offense ranks No. 14 in wRC+ with a 103, which is a little better than league average (100). The A's offense has ranked No. 7 with a 108. Yet, in the month of June, the A's offense has stayed fairly consistent at a 107 (ranked No. 11), while the Astros have slid back a bit to No. 17 with a 96.
It's always safe to be wary of Jacob Wilson, but this month the A's rookie shortstop is batting .468 with a .469 OBP, collecting 22 hits in 11 games played. Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña has also tallied 22 hits this month in 13 games, and is hitting .407. Over the weekend Wilson went 5-for-13 against Bobby Witt Jr.'s Royals, while Witt went 2-for-11. This will be yet another battle of the shortstops.
Leadoff hitter Lawrence Butler and DH Brent Rooker have also kicked it into gear this month, with Butler adding seven doubles to his league-leading 23 on the year, while Rooker has a pair of homers, five doubles, ten RBI, and has walked more (9) than he's struck out (7).
That trio of Butler-Wilson-Rooker is the top of the A's order. To quiet the offense, Houston's pitchers will have to take care of those three. Beyond them, rookie third baseman Max Muncy leads the team in homers this month with four, adding 11 RBI, and Nick Kurtz connected on a game-winning home run in the top of the ninth on Sunday.
This offense can score from pretty much anywhere in the lineup, but those three at the top are the biggest concerns for opposing teams.
Houston's home run leader for June, Isaac Paredes (4) has missed the past few games with a left hamstring strain and is considered day-to-day. He could be good to go for Monday's game, but we'll have to wait and see what his status is.
With Yordan Alvarez still on the IL, it would appear as though the Astros offense is operating at it's peak frustration level for opposing teams. Outside of Peña, nobody is necessarily going off this month. Christian Walker is tied for the second-most RBI on the club in June with eight, but he's batting .222 with a .300 OBP and a pair of home runs, while also striking out 16 times in 45 at-bats.
Centerfielder Jacob Melton has seven hits this month, one for extra bases, but has racked up six RBI. This is how Houston tends to frustrate opposing fan bases. You can hold them down for the majority of the game, but they'll get that one crack to score some runs, and then the floodgates open just enough for them to come out on top.
Facing the Astros is never an easy task, but this will be a good test for the A's with some wins under their belts and the team playing better baseball. We should find out if they're truly snapped out of their May funk, or if there is still some growing needed from the roster left to be done.
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Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.