How Close Are the A's to the Teams Still Alive in October?
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The Athletics are hoping to make the jump from a 76-win team to a postseason contender in 2026, and with the ALCS kicking off last night, we thought it would be a good idea to see how the A's stacked up with the Championship Series teams in all three facets in order to get a sense of what they need to do this winter to reach those goals.
First we'll take a look at the A's strength, which is their collection of big-time bats. Next to each of the statistics is a number in parentheses, which is their rank across all teams in Major League Baseball. As you can see, despite having a top-ten offense last season, the A's could still stand to fine-tune a couple of areas.
A's | Mariners | Blue Jays | Brewers | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Average | .253 (5) | .244 (20) | .265 (1) | .258 (T-2) | .253 (6) |
OBP | .318 (13) | .320 (11) | .333 (1) | .332 (T-2) | .327 (5) |
wRC+ | 105 (10) | 113 (T-2) | 112 (T-4) | 107 (9) | 113 (T-2) |
HR | 219 (7) | 238 (3) | 191 (T-11) | 166 (22) | 244 (2) |
RBI | 709 (12) | 734 (10) | 771 (3) | 750 (7) | 791 (2) |
SB | 80 (27) | 161 (3) | 77 (28) | 164 (2) | 88 (22) |
BB% | 8.2 (20) | 8.8 (T-8) | 8.4 (T-13) | 9.1 (T-5) | 9.4 (2) |
K% | 22.9 (T-20) | 23.3 (24) | 17.8 (1) | 20.3 (T-4) | 21.9 (12) |
Taking a look the last four teams alive in the postseason hunt laid out against the A's offensively, you can see that the A's have plenty to work with here with some tweaks potentially getting them deep into October. That said, the A's aren't going to be a speedy team given their roster personnel, so they should focus more on the approach-based stats in order to reach that upper echelon.
The A's walked 8.2% of the time, but with just a few more bases on balls, they could have vaulted up to 8.4 (Toronto) or even 8.8 (Mariners) and been in a completely different tier of team. Part of this can be achieved by the influence of Nick Kurtz on the lineup over the course of a full season, who is sure to draw his share of walks in 2026.
While the Mariners showed that a high strikeout rate as a team doesn't destroy a club's chances overall, they also received a 60-homer season from Cal Raleigh that led the offense, so it's probably best not to rely on an all-time campaign and just work on the strikeout rate as a unit.
More players on base and more balls in play should lead to more runs being driven in. The A's already crank homers at a high clip, so just making sure there are guys on base for those moonshots will be important.
What About Pitching?
For this one, we'll divide the A's into their full season numbers, along with their second-half stats to give an idea of where they are over the course of 162, and how much work could still need to be done, even when the team was rolling.
A's | Mariners | Blue Jays | Brewers | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERA | 4.71 (27) | 3.87 (13) | 4.19 (19) | 3.59 (2) | 3.95 (16) |
FIP | 4.66 (27) | 3.97 (9) | 4.26 (22) | 3.91 (6) | 3.83 (T-4) |
GB% | 37.4 (30) | 42.9 (8) | 39.5 (26) | 40.8 (21) | 41.7 (16) |
LOB% | 70.7 (T-23) | 73.3 (13) | 74.4 (11) | 75.1 (3) | 73.2 (14) |
K% | 21.2 (T-22) | 23.2 (9) | 23.5 (8) | 23.7 (6) | 24.8 (2) |
BB% | 9.1 (26) | 7.4 (3) | 8.5 (T-16) | 8.8 (22) | 9.3 (28) |
Looking solely at the A's column, that's too many 20+ rankings among key stats in order to be the team they're hoping to become in 2026. Allowing free passes at a 9.1% clip is entirely too high, especially when you combine that with the 23rd-ranked left on base rate and not enough strikeouts.
The big question here is whether or not these are mental fixes, or personnel decisions that need to be made.
While each of the four teams that are still playing struggled in at least one area, they also excelled somewhere as well. For the Brewers, it was ERA. For Los Angeles and Toronto, they strike batters out. The Mariners don't allow free passes. The A's will have to find their avenue of choice and make that an offseason priority.
We can also see that ground ball rate doesn't necessarily play a predictive role for teams here, but in the A's case, since Sutter Health Park is a more hitter-friendly space, this could play a factor for them as they construct their staff for next season.
Let's take a look at how the A's performed in the second half of the season, when they had the second-best bullpen in baseball with a 2.99 ERA.
A's (Second Half) | |
|---|---|
ERA | 3.94 (11) |
FIP | 4.23 (T-19) |
GB% | 38.9 (26) |
LOB% | 74.1 (9) |
K% | 22.8 (17) |
BB% | 9.0 (24) |
During the second half of the season, the A's made some big improvements, upping their ground ball rate from 37.4% to 38.9%, and they also left a ton of runners on base, ranking ninth in LOB% after the break. Those two factors certainly helped contribute to the A's second-half success.
That said, even if the A's performed like this over the course of a full season, that may not be enough to get them into the postseason. The Blue Jays had the worst pitching staff of the bunch, but they also ranked at the top of MLB in a number of categories offensively to even things out. It's tough to see the Green and Gold advancing too much as a unit to challenge Toronto atop the leaderboard.
This would mean that the A's will have to improve the pitching staff, while also perhaps making tweaks to their depth pieces in order to set them up for any injuries that may come along the way.
Finally, let's take a look at each team's defense.
What About the Gloves?
The A's made strides over the course of the season defensively, and even have one of the best defensive outfields when they have their big three healthy and ready to go.
A's | Mariners | Blue Jays | Brewers | Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DRS | -34 (26) | 9 (18) | 51 (4) | 31 (11) | 67 (3) |
OAA | -15 (22) | -30 (27) | 14 (9) | 29 (5) | 10 (11) |
FRV | -16 (22) | -29 (26) | 44 (1) | 30 (3) | 0 (17) |
Each of these defensive ranking systems view these clubs completely differently, but a couple of things that we can pick up on is that no data suggested that the A's were one of the best fielding teams in baseball, while they all thought highly of the Blue Jays and Brewers.
The good news for the Athletics is that Denzel Clarke is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game, and if he's able to play a full season, he could bring the A's Outs Above Average figure from -15 to 0 by himself. That would move the A's to roughly middle of the pack based on 2025's numbers.
It would also help if the front office didn't replace guys like Luis Urías (-6) and Miguel Andujar (-7) with subpar gloves. Brett Harris (+2) rated well at third base, while Darell Hernaiz (+4) filled in well at shortstop when Jacob Wilson was on the shelf late in the year. Their gloves could earn them serious looks in camp, depending on what the club decides to do this winter.
Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.
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