Projecting A's Rule 5 Draftee Mitch Spence for 2024
The Oakland A's have had success with recent Rule 5 picks in the past, though both of their key wins have been on the position player side. First, it was Mark Canha in the 2014 Draft, and most recently it was last year's pick, Ryan Noda, who is slotted as the team's first baseman after a terrific season.
This off-season the A's took a swing with right-handed pitcher Mitch Spence, who had been in the New York Yankees system. He made 29 starts in Triple-A last year and held a 4.47 ERA across 163 innings. Over the course of his pro career he's shown that he can control the ball well, putting up a 7.5% walk rate a year ago.
Where he'll end up slotting onto the A's roster in 2024 is yet to be determined. The long-term goal would likely be to have him as a back-end starter, but this year the A's have a number of arms slotted in the rotation when everyone is healthy. Leading the way is JP Sears, followed closely by the veteran of the staff Paul Blackburn. From there, you have Luis Medina, who is out of options, and then potentially two spots up for grabs with Ken Waldichuk's status as spring training nears uncertain.
Spence figures to be in that mix, along with free agent signee Osvaldo Bido, and trade acquisition Joe Boyle. Of the three, only Boyle has pitched in the A's system to date, and when he debuted at the end of 2023 he was superb. He'll likely have a leg-up on the competition but will still need a strong spring to land a spot.
Given that Spence will be making his MLB debut if he makes the team, the coaching staff may look to start him in the bullpen to limit the pressure a touch, at least at first.
The ZiPS projections over at FanGraphs think fairly highly of Spence and believe that he'll rank second on the team in innings pitched with 139, and second in fWAR at 1.8. In their projections Spence finished behind Sears in both categories.
They also have him finishing with a 4.18 ERA, which is right about where they have Ken Waldichuk (4.33) projected. Last year's league average ERA among starters was 4.45, and only Paul Blackburn (4.30) finished better than that last season. This year all four pitchers are projected to finish better than last year's league average. Medina (4.51) just misses the cut, while Bido (4.55) and Boyle (4.77) struggle with command a bit.
In fact, all of the projection systems over at FanGraphs have Spence finishing with an ERA in the low fours, which would make him a welcome addition to a pitching staff that finished 29th in ERA a year ago.
According to Brooks Baseball, Spence has five offerings, which include a sinker (93 mph), slider (83), changeup (87), curve (80), and cutter (90). They also have his cutter (36%) and slider (35%) as his two most-used pitches during the final month of the season. His sinker and his curve were both used between 10-15%, while his changeup was used between 2-5% of the time over the final three months.
The amount of success Spence has with the A's could come down to how well he mixes his pitches, and of course, execution in 2024, but the projections like him to have a solid debut season in Oakland.