Have the Astros Done Enough After Valdez—and Does it Open the Door For the A's?
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The Houston Astros failed to make the postseason for the first time since 2016 last year, and by the looks of it, they're not looking to make their exclusion a habit. With the A's on the rise themselves, the moves that Houston is making could end up being quite impactful on whether or not the A's end up making it to the postseason for the first time since 2020.
The A's biggest need this winter has been in the rotation, where their starting five ranked 27th in ERA with a 4.85. Only the Angels, Nationals and Rockies were worse.
Houston on the other hand ranked No. 14 in starter's ERA with a 3.97. One thing that Thursday's signing of Tatsuya Imai signals is that the Stros will be out of the running to bring back left-hander Framber Valdez, who has been the team's ace for years now.
The big question for Houston, and by extension the A's, is whether the additions they've made will make them a better or worse squad in 2026.
Right moves for Houston?
Over the course of 17 career games started against the A's, Valdez ended up going 8-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 105 innings of work. He also held a 1.019 WHIP in that span, holding the green and gold at bay fairly consistently. He made two starts against the A's in 2025, and was even better against them, getting two wins in Sacramento and posting a 2.08 ERA across 13 innings.
Not only was he good in general, but he was good against the A's, who just so happened to finish as a top-10 offense in baseball. Hunter Brown kept the A's down for his first two starts against them, allowing two runs in 11 innings, but the A's bats got to him in his regular season finale, putting up four runs in five innings.
Brown will continue to be at the head of the rotation, following his terrific season where he held a 2.43 ERA. Brown and Valdez were the only two pitchers that made at least 15 starts for Houston last season, while Ryan Gusto (5.45 ERA in 66 innings) and Colton Gordon (5.40 ERA in 70 IP) each made 14 starts.
Lance McCullers Jr. (6.66 ERA in 51 1/3 innings) and former A's righty Jason Alexander (3.82 in 68 1/3) each made 13 starts for the Astros. You can see that losing Valdez could have a pretty substantial impact on a rotation that was already roughly league average.
The newcomers and their projections
While Imai doesn't have any projections on FanGraphs just yet, the specifics of his contract provide a little insight on what we could potentially expect. This is a three-year deal that has performance bonuses if he reaches 80, 90, or 100 innings of work. In other words, they're not marking him down for 200 frames, or anything close to what Framber was providing.
What those more limited innings look like could end up making or breaking the starting staff.
The other additions to the pitching mix this winter have been Mike Burrows, Nate Pearson and Ryan Weiss, with Pearson and Weiss currently slotted as long relief options in the bullpen over at Roster Resource.
Burrows is projected as a fourth or fifth starter with a 4.24 ERA across 138 innings of work. Last season a 4.21 ERA was league average, so that is what they're seemingly expecting here.
Pearson is put down for a 4.50 ERA in 70 innings, while Weiss is at a 4.49 ERA in 129 frames. If these projections are close to accurate, then the Houston pitching staff could be in a little bit of trouble. On the one hand, they'd be getting better production than their fill-in guys provided in 2025, but they also wouldn't be filling in the gap left by Framber Valdez, either.
The addition of Imai is a big, attention-grabbing move. Houston is also banking on it paying off in a big way in order to keep their rotation somewhat afloat after a middling season in 2025.
As for the A's, if Houston's pitching isn't up to the challenge in 2026, then their barrage of bats will certainly make them pay.
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Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.
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