San Diego Padres Free Agent Could Impact A's Offseason Plans
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The San Diego Padres offseason has arrived after a brutal loss to the Chicago Cubs in Game 3 of the Wild Card round. Let's just say ABS can't come soon enough.
But for A's fans, there is one player from the Friars roster that's set to hit free agency that could impact how the A's approach their own offseason plans. That player is Luis Arraez, who will be hitting the market ahead of his age 29 season.
The reason this is impactful for the A's is not that the team is expected to go out and sign him, but rather, one of their young stars, Jacob Wilson, has often been compared to Arraez at the plate, and what he signs for could impact any potential extension negotiations with Wilson and the A's.
Earlier this week, A's GM David Forst said of more potential extensions coming this winter, "it is a possibility. I've had a lot of conversations with ownership about wanting to continue that model and locking guys up into our time in Las Vegas, so it's a two way street, but I imagine we'll be initiating some of those conversations in the next months."
If the A's were going to extend one of their breakout rookies, Wilson seems like the higher probability player to come to terms with, given that Kurtz is being compared to Judge and some of the all-time greats in the game after producing a 1.000 OPS rookie campaign.
Now, Wilson and Arraez are at two different points in their careers. Starting in 2026, the A's will still have five more years of team control over Wilson, with arbitration starting for him in 2028. He's also set to turn just 24 on March 30, so they have him locked up for most of his prime years.
On the field, the A's shortstop put up comparable numbers to Arraez's first stint in the big leagues this season, posting a 121 wRC+ while striking out at just a 7.5% clip. Arraez held a 126 wRC+ (in 92 games in 2019) and struck out 7.9% of the time.
The big difference between the two is that Wilson is playing short while Arraez was at second in 2019, and Wilson ended up with 3.5 fWAR compared to Arraez's 1.8. That's thanks in part to good defense at a key position on the field.
In four years of arbitration, Arraez ended up making $32.825 million, topping out at $14 million this past season. Wilson has two more years of pre-arb before getting to that point, but he could still end up closer to that total if he makes $6 million the first year of arbitration, $10 million in the second, and then $14 million in the third.
Those are the rough figured Arraez pulled in his second, third, and fourth arb years.
What Arraez ends up getting in free agency, and potentially how that contract is loaded, could become the blueprint for a potential Wilson extension this spring. These players aren't a one-for-one comparison by any means—with Wilson having more pop in his bat—but there aren't too many players that strike out less that 10% of the time.
In fact, since he debuted in '19, there have only been 16 player seasons in which a qualified hitter has recorded a strikeout rate below 10%. Arraez has four of the top five, while Tommy La Stella (2020) has the other. Jacob Wilson is also one of those player seasons, coming in 7th, just behind 2021 Kevin Newman.
The only player on the list to have hit more than Wilson's 13 home runs was 2024 Steven Kwan with 14, but Kwan is an outfielder, which could make the comp a little trickier.
There is no guarantee that the Athletics will come to terms on an extension this winter with either Kurtz or Wilson given that they're still young and they could be capping their own earning power. That said, it's hard to turn down a life-changing sum of money when it's offered.
Keeping an eye on how Arraez does in free agency, and how coveted he ends up being, should provide some insight into Wilson's future earning power.
Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. He also covers the Stanford Cardinal as they attempt to rebuild numerous programs to prominence.
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