Who's Projected for the Top and Bottom of the AL West?

The Sacramento-bound Athletics have made some moves this winter, and defying all odds, have even spent some money. The most notable free agent signing was bringing in right-hander Luis Severino on a three-year, $67 million deal, beating the franchise record for largest contract by one million. That deal also has an opt-out after the second year, so it may never even get to its full amount.

The A's also brought in left-hander Jeffrey Springs via trade, signed third baseman Gio Urshela, extended DH Brent Rooker, and selected Noah Murdock in the Rule 5 Draft. The rest of the A's moves this winter have been fairly typical, bringing in guys that need a chance to shine and flier-type pick-ups that have one pretty good tool.

Given that the Athletics held a .500 record over the second half of last season, expectations for this club, at least in the clubhouse, are that they reach that mark again, but over the course of a full season. A's manager Mark Kotsay said at the end of the 2024 campaign that he wants this team to be playing meaningful games late in September.

Yet, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections aren't buying into the A's just yet. BP has them projected for 70.6 wins and 91.4 losses while finishing fifth in the AL West. They also give the A's a 1.9% chance of making the postseason, which is higher than just the Colorado Rockies, Chicago White Sox, and the Miami Marlins who all have a 0% chance.

That's the bad news.

There isn't necessarily good news, but for A's fans, there is at least some hope. BP has the Texas Rangers sitting atop the West when all is said and done with an 89-win campaign, and while that's certainly attainable for that club given the talent on the roster, they haven't made a ton of moves this offseason, and are relying on some of their key veterans to either stay healthy (Jacob deGrom) or have big bounceback seasons (Adolis García).

It could certainly work out for them in 2025, but they could also continue to fall in the standings as well. They aren't a "sure thing" like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are projected for 103 wins. The New York Yankees are the only team with a higher projected win total in the American League with 89.7 wins, compared to Texas' 89.3.

The counterargument here is that the A's showed that they can compete over a half-season just last year, they've made some additions, and they're potentially due for more production from their young core.

One thing that projection systems tend to miss is what kind of a jump the inexperienced players will make, and it's perfectly understandable given their lack of a track record. More experienced teams like the Rangers, tend to earn more favor.

We also have no clue how the new ballpark in Sacramento will play yet. As a Pacific Coast League park it was roughly league average, but A's GM David Forst has said that they don't know how it'll play when big league hitters start playing games there. They're expecting it to be a middle-of-the-road park by MLB standards.

There are certainly factors that pertain to the A's that make them seem like more than a 71-win club. It also seems hard to believe that the Los Angeles Angels would finish above the A's, despite having an under-the-radar solid offseason.

It's also important to remember that the projection systems never had the A's winning 97 games, which they did in back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019, before ending 2020 on a 97-win pace in a shortened season. This club tends to surprise people, and if they can get more production from guys like Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, and Jacob Wilson, then the offense could be a bit of a force to help make up for some of the concerns with the starting five.

Add in a solid bullpen and a rotation with some upside, and the A's may sneak up on some people in 2025. If they don't then they'll be eligible for a lottery pick again for the 2026 MLB Draft. Guess there was good news after all.