Why Shane Bieber's Game 3 ALCS Start Looms Large for Blue Jays
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Games 1 and 2 of the ALCS did not goes as planned for the Toronto Blue Jays.
Playing in the cozy confines of the Rogers Centre where they went 54-27 during the regular season and 2-0 in the ALDS, they have fallen into a two-games-to-none hole after being outscored 13-4. Now, the club turns to Shane Bieber to help right the ship in Game 3 on the road.
While the circumstances could be better, this is precisely why Bieber was acquired. An ace as a member of the Cleveland Guardians, he was added at the trade deadline to anchor (or co-anchor, along with Kevin Gausman) the starting rotation as a stabilizing presence with postseason experience.
To date, the returns on Bieber have been hit and miss. The 2020 AL Cy Young winner looked every bit like the No. 1 pitcher they had hoped to land during his Toronto debut. Returning on Aug. 22 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, the 30-year-old allowed just one run and six hits while striking out nine in a win over the Miami Marlins.
From there, Bieber posted solid, but unspectacular numbers across his seven regular season starts with an ERA (3.57) and bWAR figure (0.7) that were both below his career averages. And then in Game 3 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees, he couldn't get through the third inning, lasting just 2.2 frames while allowing two earned runs and five hits en route to a 9-6 loss.
Suffice to say, the Blue Jays need more than that from Bieber on Wednesday night as he battles George Kirby of the Mariners as the series shifts to Seattle. And it could be more than just Toronto's postseason chances that hangs in the balance.
Game 3 Could Shape Bieber's Next Contract
Blue Jays fans may not want to hear it, but Game 3 could also represent Bieber's last appearance with the club. He holds a $16 million player option for 2026 (with a $4 million buyout) and may be looking for a long-term commitment now that he's once again healthy.
Toronto would surely love to keep the right-hander since both Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer are also set to become unrestricted free agents, but at what cost would the front office be willing to pay Bieber on the open market?
When looking at other recently-signed frontline starters like Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, an annual salary in the $20-30 million range seems like a reasonable ballpark figure for Bieber. Of course, a strong Game 3 showing with plenty of eyes on him would go a long way towards boosting that value.
Provided Bieber can deliver an ace-worthy performance and help pull the Blue Jays back from the brink of elimination, he could decline his player option and stand alongside the likes of Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez as some of the top arms on the market.
If he fails to deliver and Toronto falls into 3-0 hole, it not only will likely sink the club's season but could also raise red flags about an aging pitcher struggling to rediscover his pre-Tommy John form.
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Ben Fisher is a long-time sportswriter and baseball lover, dating back to 2008, when he was a member of the media relations team for the Toronto Blue Jays. He has covered a wide range of sports for a seemingly endless array of publications, including The Canadian Press, Fansided and The Hockey Writers. When he isn't writing about sports, he can be found coaching his equally baseball-obsessed sons' Little League teams.