Atlanta Braves Opening Day Roster Projection 3.0

The Atlanta Braves keep reassigning players to minor league camp, and we're getting more clarity as to the Opening Day roster as a result

The Atlanta Braves keep narrowing the field of Opening Day roster candidates, and as such, we're changing our roster prediction for who Atlanta takes with them when they prepare to open the season at Philadelphia on March 28th. 

Atlanta just sent several players to minor league camp, including bullpen candidates Ray Kerr and Ken Giles and bench candidate J.P. Martínez, so there are some changes in our projections. 

(Hence skipping over '2.5' and going straight to 3.0.)

Check out our previous projections here: 1.0, 1.5, 2.0 

Position Players and Rotation

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Getting this out of the way, because we don't expect any changes here: 

Outfield (3): Ronald Acuña Jr, Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic
Catcher (2): Sean Murphy, Travis d'Arnaud
Third Base (1): Austin Riley
Shortstop (1): Orlando Arcia
Second Base (1): Ozzie Albies
First Base (1): Matt Olson
Designated Hitter (and emergency first baseman): Marcell Ozuna

Starting Rotation (5): RHP Spencer Strider, LHP Max Fried, RHP Charlie Morton, LHP Chris Sale, RHP Reynaldo López

Despite Bryce Elder refusing to go quietly in the 5th starter's battle, all signs point towards him spending a 2nd straight Opening Day as Gwinnett's starter, although he'll get plenty of major league time this season with the workload management expected for both veteran Chris Sale and converted reliever Reynaldo López.

Bench candidates

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Locks (2): Catcher Travis d'Arnaud (who is more of a co-starter and is listed above) and infielder Luis Guillorme, who is dealing with quad soreness but is expected to return to games soon.

The final two spots come down to versatility, and there's been some clarity come out of our discussions with team officials this week in North Port.

Favorites (2): OF Forrest Wall, INF/OF Luke Williams

Forrest Wall continues to hold down the primary outfield job in these projections, a combination of him raking (.462 with three homers and a 1.379 OPS in spring) and his ability to both steal bases and play great defense at all three outfield positions. 

For Williams, conversations in North Port this week have shown that the team really values his versatility to play both infield and outfield, with manager Brian Snitker telling the media on Monday that "he can literally play anywhere everywhere on the diamond. That's good; he's a valuable piece to have around."

That comfort all over the diamond, as well as his underrated speed (an above-average 28.7 ft/sec) makes him the perfect final member of the bench.

If a starting outfielder or infielder were to miss time, I'd expect an everyday fill-in like David Fletcher (SS/2B) or J.P. Martinez (OF), who was just sent to minor league camp, to be promoted from Gwinnett to cover the position on a daily basis. 

The bench Atlanta is likely to have gives them both weapons to use situationally and the ability to finish a game at any single position where you might lose a player. 

Bullpen

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Locks (5): RHP Raisel Iglesias (closer), LHP A.J. Minter, RHP Pierce Johnson, LHP Aaron Bummer, RHP Joe Jiménez

The rest (3): RHP Jackson Stephens (long man), LHP Tyler Matzek, LHP Dylan Lee

Just days after Daysbel Hernández was officially optioned to AAA earlier this week, seemingly paving the way for Ken Giles to make the Opening Day roster as the "veteran former closer" role that was occupied by Kirby Yates last season, Giles was also sent to minor league camp. 

Look for Tyler Matzek to potentially hold that role early in the season, as the belief is that Giles can get more of an opportunity to work on stamina - back-to-back outings, multiple innings, etc - in minor league camp before rejoining the major league roster early in the season as the "first man up" out of Gwinnett. 

In his stead, we've got Dylan Lee retaking a place on the Opening Day roster for now. He's given up three runs on four hits in only 2.2 innings this spring, but the team saw how good and reliable he could be in 2022 (2.13 ERA in 50.2 innings) and he's reportedly fully recovered from shoulder surgery needed towards the end of last season. 

AAA Gwinnett Rotation

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We're going to continue predicting this rotation, as well, given how many starting pitcher depth options the Braves have at the moment.

Starters (7): RHP Bryce Elder, RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, LHP Dylan Dodd, RHP Darius Vines, RHP Huascar Ynoa, RHP Allan Winans, RHP Hurston Waldrep

Several of these starters will have to double up, working as "piggybacks" to get everyone their work in. But it's a good problem to have and will probably only be. temporary thing until Atlanta needs one (or more) to take some major league starts. 

As much as we want to clarify to not pay any attention to the order (other than Elder getting the Opening Day start for Gwinnett), there's been some belief among members of the media that AJ Smith-Shawver might actually be the preferred call-up when you need a 6th starter over Elder, owing to the improvement the youngster's shown with his fastball velocity and overall command. 

Injured list (3): RHP Ian Anderson (starter), RHP Penn Murfee (reliever), LHP Angel Perdomo (reliever)

How would you configure the Braves roster? Let us know!