Braves Pitching Dilemma: Trade the Future or Develop it
If the Atlanta Braves decide to trade for a starting pitcher this offseason, the immediate gain might not cover the long-term damage.
Anytime you make a big trade and ship off your best prospects, you have to worry if that decision will come back to haunt you. Some Braves still get upset thinking about the haul they gave up for Mark Teixeira. And don't even get them started on the J.D. Drew trade that sent Hall of Fame pitcher Adam Wainwright to the St. Louis Cardinals.
And while now we look back on what we gave up, some forget J.D. Drew put up an MVP-like season for the Braves in 2004 leading them to the postseason.
Tex had a .943 OPS over parts of two seasons with the Braves, but unfortunately didn't get them to the postseason in 2007 and then was traded at the 2008 deadline for Casey Kotchman.
As the Braves clearly need help in the starting rotation now -- and certainly after the 2024 season -- they're faced with that ever-present dilemma that all GMs face in going for short-term gain or building for the future.
Obviously, the Braves are in a position to win and should be at a point of going all-in.
But when it comes to the starting rotation, it goes a little deeper than that.
Pitchers are so volatile that if you traded for a Dylan Cease or Corbin Burnes, the odds are decent you might get next to nothing out of them and lose them after either one or two years.
If the Braves did trade for one of those starters, they'd likely have to give up at least one of AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep. Those are the Braves top two pitching prospects who have already advanced to the upper levels and on the verge of making a big league impact.
They both also come with pretty high ceilings as top of the rotation arms. It's been a little bit since the Braves had a pair of arms like this in their system you could really get excited about.
Of course, my volatile comment regarding pitchers remains for pitching prospects. There is no guarantee that Smith-Shawver or Waldrep reach their high level of potential.
But there is also a chance that one, or both, can give you similar production in a year or two that you might get from Burnes or Cease now.
If you aren't able to trade for a starter and lock them up -- like the Dodgers just did with Tyler Glasnow -- then you're right back in the same position in a few years.
The top of the Braves rotation for 2024 is perfectly fine with Spencer Strider and Max Fried. A move for a frontline starter isn't as urgent right now as it will be after 2024.
It might make more sense to allow Smith-Shawver and Waldrep to continue to develop in 2024 -- along with others like Bryce Elder, Darius Vines, Huascar Ynoa, and Ian Anderson -- and then reassess at the deadline.
If suddenly two of those guys step up ready to replace Fried and Charlie Morton after 2024, then the rotation is in much better shape.
However, if that doesn't happen, then you're essentially forced to go out and either make a big in-season trade or prepare to spend big bucks next offseason when there should be several good free agent starters available.
With the free agent prices for pitching out of control right now, a trade seems like the most likely move for Alex Anthopoulos.
When considering those trades and who he might have to give up, he also has to consider if the players he's trading might be just as good as the player he's trading for in a year or two.
Anthopoulos is one of the best in weighing the present and the future. There's yet to be a prospect he's traded that has come back to hurt the Braves.
Moving Smith-Shawver and/or Waldrep might be the first time we see that happen with, which makes this next move that much more crucial.
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