Could the Atlanta Braves Get Free Agent Pitcher Sonny Gray on Discount?
With the Atlanta Braves likely looking to improve the depth in their starting rotation this offseason, Sonny Gray is one name that could make a lot of sense.
As discussed on the site earlier this week, a lot of what the Braves decide to do this offseason could depend on whether Charlie Morton returns or not. If he doesn't return, then a possible replacement for him could be Sonny Gray at about the same price.
Most outlets project the soon-to-be 34-year-old to get around $20-$23 million a year in his new contract. And with his age, he isn't likely to get more than a 3-4 year deal.
That seems like the length of a contract Alex Anthopoulos would consider for a starting pitcher.
It would also help lock up a rotation spot for future seasons with them set to possibly lose Max Fried after the 2024 season.
Another thing possibly helping the Braves is that in an article on The Athletic ($), Gray said, "Money is not the ultimate factor for me."
That's certainly music to the ears of many GMs, including Anthopoulos.
Part of the reason why it could be more of a factor for the Braves, is that Gray is a Tennessee native and played his collegiate ball at Vanderbilt -- right in the middle of Braves Country.
If Gray wanted to end his career playing closer to home and possibly for a team he grew up rooting for, then perhaps he'd taken even less money to play for a World Series contending team in Atlanta.
From the Braves point-of-view there are some concerns with signing Gray -- other than giving a lot of money to a pitcher in their late thirties.
Looking at his expected stats, his xERA was nearly a point higher than his actual ERA, but still a solid 3.69. His xBA was 17 points higher than his actual batting average, taking it from .226 to .243.
There is a real possibility you're paying top-dollar for an aging pitcher coming off the best season of his career.
When considering a move for Gray, it's likely prudent to view him based on what his floor could be. Even if he declines to a 3.75 ERA and 1.20 WHIP type of pitcher, that would be a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm.
But, as with any pitcher, there is always the risk of injury. Gray has made 30 or more starts just twice in the past nine full seasons.
This past season he threw 184 innings -- that was the most he had thrown in a full season since 2015. Featuring his sweeper in 2023 was a big part of his success as batters hit just .097 against that pitch.
But batters hit .250 or better against all of his other pitches. What happens when they adjust to that sweeper or start to lay off that pitch and hunt his low 90s fastball?
It's always a big risk to sign a pitcher for a lot of years and money.
But if Gray would take a small discount, maybe 3 years at $18 million and an option year with a $4 million buyout, it could make some sense for the Braves -- especially if they're having to replace Morton.
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