Former MLB GM suggests Atlanta trade for OF Adam Duvall and/or SP Lance Lynn

As Tuesday's trade deadline approaches, there's quite a lot of confusion out there as to who, exactly, will be selling. There's a few teams that are obviously out of it and have either announced or telegraphed their intention to sell - the St. Louis Cardinals, the Chicago White Sox, the Oakland A's, and the Colorado Rockies - but the addition of the 3rd wild card spot in each league means there's more teams than ever that are looking at the standings heading into this weekend and trying to figure out if they acquire pieces to make a run at the playoffs or sell some pieces to reconfigure for next year.

Atlanta's not immune to this sort of last-minute decision making - reminder, the Braves were three games back of .500 and six games back in the NL East in 2021 at this same point before the deadline and had lost Ronald Acuña Jr to a torn ACL. Instead of selling expiring contracts, they decided to go for it, acquiring three additional outfielders (Jorge Soler, Adam Duvall, & Eddie Rosario) to go along with the previous week's acquisition of Joc Pederson, and Atlanta went on to win the World Series.

Things are a bit different this year - Atlanta's the overwhelming Vegas favorite to win the World Series, owners of the best record in baseball (64-35) and have spent 96 days in first place, owning the largest divisional lead in MLB. Their offense has been an absolute juggernaut, led by MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr and MLB's RBI leader, Matt Olson.

But that doesn't mean they can't get better.

Jim Bowden, former Reds and Nationals GM who now writes for The Athletic, just dropped his trade deadline scenarios for the Braves ($) and he has four different players Atlanta might try to acquire: OF Adam Duvall (Boston Red Sox), SP Lance Lynn (Chicago White Sox), righty reliever Michael Fulmer (Chicago Cubs), and lefty reliever Brent Suter (Colorado Rockies).

Here's what he said about the need to make these trades:

Last year’s Division Series loss to Philadelphia was a reminder of how quickly things can change due to a suddenly stalled offense or injuries and illness to a couple of key pitchers, as was the case last October with a flu-weakened Max Fried and Spencer Strider coming back from an oblique strain.

Let's break down the deals and what he proposes Atlanta send out to acquire these players:

OF Adam Duvall, Boston Red Sox

Boston receives: RH reliever Dereck Rodríguez, prospects 2B/3B Geraldo Quintero & C Drake Baldwin

Reasoning: RHH left field option, backup for Michael Harris II in centerfield (plus the obvious chemistry fit)

Our take: It's hard for Atlanta to think about sending out a reliever when they're hurting for bullpen arms, but Rodríguez was recently DFA'd when Atlanta brought in two relievers on Monday. The fit works, but the question becomes one of roster construction - they like Forrest Wall as a pinch-running option (we saw against the Brewers, where he stole two bases in two pitches, that he's a legitimate threat out there) and so you're stuck either sacrificing that OR losing Kevin Pillar until rosters expand in September. This doesn't really feel like it moves the needle for me, so I'd probably pass.

SP Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox

Cost: RHP Dereck Rodríguez and prospect RHP Seth Keller

Rationale: Veteran presence, can eat innings, Atlanta's pitching development can probably "fix" him, Braves aren't one of the ten teams on his no-trade clause

Our take: If we're moving a reliever, I'm okay with it being for another arm. He could answer that 5th starter question for the last two months of the season, and he's not very far removed from a < 3.5 ERA. He's also pitched well recently, with 53 strikeouts in his past 37.2 innings over six starts (with two 10+ strikeout games).

Digging deeper, he's been as effective as ever against righties & his strikeout rate is up. The things skyrocketing his ERA are lefties and homers. His HR/FB rate is 20.3%, almost twice what the major league average is (12%).

The issue, and Bowden alludes to this, is he probably doesn't make Atlanta's postseason roster. You're taking on a LOT of salary - he's making $18.5M this year, so the prorated portion of that is around $5M - for two months of a 5th starter. I could see it happening, but it's not my preferred route to go, especially if it causes luxury tax implications down the line.

RHP Michael Fulmer, Chicago Cubs

Cost: RHP Dereck Rodríguez, prospect C Blake Baldwin

Rationale: Cost (1yr/$4M deal)

Our take: This seems easy. Fulmer started the year rough, but has turned it on over the last month plus, with a 1.50 ERA in his last 21 outings (24 innings), with 24 strikeouts and a batting average allowed of only .169.

LHP Brent Suter, Colorado Rockies

Cost: SS Braden Shewmake OR prospect RHP Seth Keller and C Drake Baldwin

Rationale: He's been fantastic (despite pitching half his games in Coors Field) and he's a lefty

Our take: This feels like a good plan if you can do it without trading Braden Shewmake - he's your primary minor league backup at shortstop and feels destined to be the next Charlie Culberson. Suter's been excellent, though - 2.62 ERA with 99th percentile exit velo and hard-hit rates. He's only 33, so he could be re-signed, as well. It'd hurt to lose Shewmake, but if Atlanta could make the deal without including Braden, I'd go out to Colorado and bring Suter back myself.

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