What the Atlanta Braves are getting in Jarred Kelenic

The Mariners outfielder slots into Atlanta's vacant left field position and, with some improvement at the plate, can be an impact addition to the Braves roster

Author:
Lindsay Crosby
Dec 4, 2023 11:27 AM EST

The Atlanta Braves have finally answered questions about their left field vacancy with the acquisition of Seattle Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic via trade on Sunday night.

Sep 11, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners right fielder Jarred Kelenic (10) reacts to striking out against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

What does his addition mean for the Braves lineup?

Kelenic's not a finished product at the plate

After two seasons of offensive struggles, with a .168 batting average across 147 games in 2021 & 2022, Kelenic finally showed some of the offensive promise that prompted the New York Mets to take him with the 6th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft.

Finally getting full-time run in the outfield, Kelenic batted .252/.320/.439 across the first 90 games of 2023. His power production wasn't anything exceptional - 11 homers in that stretch - but he stole 12 bags (in 16 chances) and scored 43 runs thanks to his extra-base hitting, collecting 37 XBHs in that stretch. With a hard-hit rate of 45.5% (73rd percentile), he fits into Atlanta's slugging-proficient lineup.

But strikeouts were a problem for Kelenic, with 118 in that stretch, and the had a bigger impact than just an out in an opportune time: Kelenic kicked a cooler in the dugout after a strikeout on July 19th, breaking his foot and ultimately missing two months of the season, not returning until mid-September.

A lot of the strikeout concerns for Kelenic come down to changeups and curveballs, batting just .183 against offspeed pitches and .171 against curves. Hitting coach Kevin Seitzer (and hitting consultant Chipper Jones) have plenty of time to work with him on his pitch recognition.

Defensively, Kelenic is incredibly versatile

Sep 20, 2023; Oakland, California, USA; Seattle Mariners left field Jarred Kelenic (10) throws the ball during the ninth inning against the Oakland Athletics at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. — Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

A great athlete, Kelenic has played all three outfield positions during his three years in Seattle. Spending most of 2021 in centerfield and 2023 in left - 2022, the shortest sample of the three, was almost evenly divided between center field and right field - Kelenic's hovered around neutral on Outs Above Average, coming in at -1 OAA for his three-year career.

He has the potential to add value with his arm, as well, with an average arm strength of 90.5 mph (per MLB Statcast).

Kelenic graded out negatively in left field last season, with -1 OAA (and -1 OAA in centerfield), but was neutral for the year thanks to his +2 OAA in right field.

With Ronald Acuña Jr firmly entrenched in right field for the Braves, an offseason to prepare to play exclusively left field may help with Kelenic's reads, routes, and reactions in left. But the versatility is useful - in Kelenic and Forrest Wall, Atlanta has two defenders capable of playing all three outfield positions if there's an injury to either Acuña Jr or Michael Harris II in 2025.

Kelenic should provide advantages on the basepaths, too

Sep 15, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners left fielder Jarred Kelenic (10) slides into third base against the Los Angeles Dodgers at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports — Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

An underrated aspect of many players' offensive games is their running ability. Kelenic may not have the gaudiest stolen base numbers - only 24 in over 200 career games - but he's proficient in many other aspects of baserunning.

Kelenic was 5% better than expected on advancing after outfield outs, thanks to his top 30 (for outfielders) sprint speed of 28.0 ft/sec.

(For context, Ronald Acuña Jr also averaged 28.0 ft/sec in 2023, although with 17 more "bolts" - a one-second peak speed of 30 ft/sec - than Kelenic.

It's equivalent speed to last season's combo of Eddie Rosario (27.9) and Kevin Pillar (28.2), but with much better proficiency at advancing after outs.

So this is a good deal for Atlanta?

Undisputedly, yes. Atlanta took advantage of a front office regime and ownership group in Seattle that used the excuse of trying to cut down on swing-and-miss to jettison several players signed to expensive contracts. Kelenic does have strikeout concerns and won't be a plus defender for you, but as Alex Anthopoulos mentioned when talking to the media after the trade, the Braves have a strong and stable core and any new acquisition doesn't need to carry the team offensively, just contribute. Kelenic can undoubtedly do that, and it's an exciting addition to the Braves roster.

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