Who should the Atlanta Braves use as the Game Three starter?

Atlanta Braves manager Brian Snitker, addressing the media via video-conference prior to the team's flight to Philadelphia, said the team's still discussing their options. There's a lot of variables that go into picking a starter. "A lot - length-wise, we have some options. Do we want to do an opener? Who are we going to follow up with if we decide to do that? Or do we just want to go the traditional route?"

There's two main options for the bulk of the pitches, in Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver, as well as the question of using an opener or not. A bullpen game isn't likely, as Atlanta has to play a game four the very next day.

Let's look at who Atlanta might turn to for game three:

Option 1: Bryce Elder

Elder's the "traditional" option Snitker was referring to - Elder's been in the rotation almost the entire season, and was voted as a 2023 All-Star. The complete body of work would point to this not being particularly close: 12-4 record, 3.81 ERA.

But he's also significantly over his career high in innings, sitting on 180.2 innings after barely breaking 150 last season combined between AAA and MLB. And the fatigue might be partially to blame for his poor 2nd half performance; after entering the All-Star Break with a 2.97 ERA, Elder's pitched to a 5.11 ERA in the second half.

Even worse, his last two starts have been among his worst of the season - 3.2 innings each against both the Cubs and Phillies, with a combined nine runs allowed on ten hits and nine walks with only two strikeouts (and two homers, both by Philadelphia).

Option 2: AJ Smith-Shawver

The non-traditional option for Atlanta would be to turn to the youngster with better stuff. Smith-Shawver, only 20, started the season in High-A Rome and climbed the entire ladder to debut in early June.

He's got better stuff that Elder, with a fastball that averages 5 mph more velocity than Elder's (95 versus 90), a slider, a changeup, and a curveball that he added this season. He flashed that stuff in his final two outings this season, allowing only one run over 3.2 innings to the Cubs and then limiting Atlanta's A-squad to one hit and no runs oer five innings in last week's intersquad games.

The other advantage to Smith-Shawver is that he's never faced Philly, so he's a bit of an unknown for their aggressive offense.

The downsides are obvious, though: He's very inexperienced. He's thrown only 164.1 innings in professional baseball, with just 48 of those coming in the upper minors (AA or AAA) and just 25.1 at the major league level.

(Of lesser concern is that he was thought of as a potential Game Five starter if Max Fried's finger blister couldn't allow him to make a second start. By all reports, though, Max's finger is fine and Elder could always be the fall back there.)

Decision: To use an opener or not?

We already mentioned that a bullpen game is unlikely, owing to having a game four the next day, but might Atlanta deploy an opener in front of either Elder or Smith-Shawver?

It's possible, yes, but feels unlikely. The primary benefit of using an opener would be getting either pitcher past the top of Philly's order, primarily lefty Kyle Schwarber at leadoff and lefty Bryce Harper in the #3 hole.

The reason why this feels unlikely stems back to injury concerns. Lefty long-man Dylan Lee would be a great candidate for that role, but he's out for the season. Using lefties Brad Hand or AJ Minter in the 1st inning means leaving the bullpen with only one southpaw for the rest of the game, and that feels like a move that Snitker and pitching coach Rick Kranitz would try to avoid.

Of the righties that it feels like Atlanta would trust with this, the immediate thought is Jesse Chavez, but due to the slow rehab from his fractured leg, he didn't make the NLDS roster.

Reliever Michael Tonkin has been one of Atlanta's go-to long-men out of the pen this year - he has rough career splits against lefties (.280/.348/.530), although he has been better this year in a limited sample size (.248/.316/.387 in 153 plate appearances).

So what does Atlanta do?

There's no easy answer for the Atlanta Braves here, sadly. If it's me, I'm going with the better swing-and-miss stuff of an AJ Smith-Shawver and trying to implement a Spener Strider-like velocity-focused gameplan. Focus on attack Philly up in the zone and inside, with the curveball playing a vertical game off of the fastball and the slider getting Philadelphia's hitters to chase out of the zone.

But whoever gets the start (or the bulk of the innings), expect them to have a short leash - Atlanta absolutely can't afford to get into another hole early and expect to mash their way out of it like they did on Monday.

And know that, if everything goes well, you've got your horses for Game Four and Five in Spencer Strider and Max Fried, respectively.

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