ZiPS Projections Show Atlanta Braves Will be Just Fine in 2024
With the doom-and-gloom about not signing any big free agents, ZiPS projections show this current version of the Atlanta Braves is good enough.
It's easy during the offseason to get caught up in all of the movement, and it's understandably frustrating to watch other teams make big signings while your team does nothing.
But something to remember as Braves fans right now, every team in baseball is making moves to try and catch up with them.
The Braves went into the offseason with the most complete roster in baseball.
Especially with the moves already made for the bullpen, the only real weakness on this team is the back of the rotation.
The annual ZiPS projections by Dan Szymborski of Fangraphs were posted this past week and they show why the Braves are already considered to be one of the best teams in 2024.
Braves Offense ZiPS Projections
The projections are very favorable for NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr, projecting a 43 homer and 51 stolen base season.
His projected 7.1 WAR is over a win better than any other player in baseball.
But it's not just Acuña. As Dan points out in the article, even if you remove him from this team, it would still be one of the best lineups in baseball with Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy.
The projections aren't buying the rebound season for Marcell Ozuna in 2023, as they project him to hit 15 fewer home runs while seeing his batting average cut by 20 points.
They also see a bit of a step back for Orlando Arcia after he had a surprise All-Star season in 2023. And the projections aren't buying a breakout for newly acquired Jarred Kelenic. Left field is the only position projected to be worth less than 1 win.
Shortstop and left field were the only position groups for the Braves last year to accumulate fewer than 1 win. Outside of those two positions, center field was the lowest at 3.8, partially owing to missed time and early seaosn struggles by centerfielder Michael Harris II.
Regardless of what they get at left field and shortstop in 2024, this figures to be an elite offense once again.
Braves Pitching ZiPS Projections
A lot of the focus this offseason has been on the starting rotation, but ZiPS believes - at least for 2024 - the rotation will be just fine with a pair of 4 win players at the top in Spencer Strider and Max Fried and a pair of 2 win players behind them in Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder.
The big question right now is what to do with that fifth starter spot.
ZiPS projects Huascar Ynoa, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Reynaldo Lopez to be all be around a 1 win player in the rotation.
The projections for Allan Winans (4.34 ERA) and Ian Anderson (4.44 ERA) would also make them worthy candidates for that fifth spot.
Surprisingly, they aren't very high on AJ Smith-Shawver, predicting a 4.54 ERA in 101 innings. That's not not at all surprising considering he's still just 21 and has some things to work on.
In case you're curious, they have about the same projections for Hurston Waldrep.
Strider and Fried are both projected to finish with a low three ERA, while Strider is projected to get 234 strikeouts in 161.7 innings. Morton and Elder are both projected for low four ERAs in around 150 innings each.
The bullpen is hard to project as a unit, and part of that depends on the role Lopez plays, but Dan points out how deep of a bullpen it is and that the projections may be underrating it a bit.
I like these lines in the final paragraph of Dan's article.
The depth chart suggests a >100 win projection, which is exceedingly rare in ZiPS (or any projection system). ... Unfortunately for the Braves, being a very dangerous team only gives you about a 20% chance of winning the World Series, baseball being baseball.
This Braves team right now, on paper, is super talented and has the chance to win 100 games for the third straight year, which would be incredible.
But as we've learned the past two seasons, being the best on paper doesn't guarantee you anything come October.
Please go give Dan's article a read as it not only gives some great projections for major league players but minor league players as well. And it provides a list of comps for each player that is a lot of fun to look at.
(One of Vaughn Grissom's near-age offensive comps, for instance, is a young Derek Jeter, while Ronald Acuña Jr's three closest near-age comps are Frank Robinson, Willie Mays, and early career Mookie Betts.)
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