Most Critical Pitcher vs. Hitter Matchup That Could Decide the Brewers-Dodgers Series

The Brewers will need their top left-handed reliever to keep the Dodgers' postseason home run king quiet in the NLCS.

Aug 15, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Aaron Ashby (26) and catcher William Contreras (24) react at the end of the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Milwaukee Brewers will face the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series for the second straight postseason. They're hoping for better results than last October, when they were easily swept in four games.

One pitcher vs. hitter matchup could be critical to keeping the Brewers in the series. That will be how left-handers Aaron Ashby and DL Hall deal with the left-handed sluggers in the Dodgers lineup. The most compelling will be Ashby against Los Angeles' all-time postseason homer king, Max Muncy.

What makes the Dodgers tough is their ability to slug the ball and put up a crooked number in a hurry. In their wins against the Atlanta Braves, it was their ability to put up crooked numbers that allowed them to build sizeable leads. In their one loss, they only scored on solo home runs.

If the Brewers can keep the Dodgers' scoring to just single tallies, they can keep it close enough to where their offensive strengths are a factor. Milwaukee doesn't necessarily slug much, but they win with grinding at-bats and building innings for the big hit.

Why Aaron Ashby vs. Max Muncy Could Decide NLCS

May 22, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Aaron Ashby (26) is taken out of the game by manager Pat Murphy (49) in the eighth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Muncy enters the NLCS with 19 postseason homers. The 36-year-old third baseman added three more in the Dodgers' NLDS triumph over the Braves.

Ashby will be critical in neutralizing the Dodgers' left-handed power. In the regular season, he held opposing left-handed hitters to a .215/.280/.300 slash. Milwaukee will need that to continue to hold as they will face some of the toughest left-handed bats in the National League.

What makes the Brewers southpaw so tough to hit is not only can he miss bats, but he is tough to get the ball in the air against. Ashby has a 32.1% whiff rate per swing and a 30.3% strikeout rate. When batters do make contact, it's on the ground 56.3% of the time.

As Abner Uribe was at quieting down the Padres' best hitters in the NLDS, Ashby will have to do the same in the NLCS. He not only has to keep Max Muncy quiet, but also Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Kyle Tucker.

With that in mind, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will likely try to split the left-handed bats up with Will Smith and Teoscar Hernández. Hernández can be especially dangerous with the long ball, if Ashby makes a mistake in the heart of the strike zone.

The Brewers will have Trevor Megill situated as the ninth-inning stopper. However, their plan to get there could change with every game. This may be a series where Ashby pitches four, possibly five times if it extends further than last year.