Cardinals Rotation Ranking Is Spot On Despite Hot Start

The St. Louis Cardinals' rotation is an issue.

May 8, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy (36) delivers during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals begin a crucial three-game set with the Athletics on Tuesday night as they continue their stretch against playoff contending teams. They are 23-17 and sit in third place in the crowded National League Central, 3 1/2 games back of the first place Chicago Cubs.

If there is one area of weakness, it would be their starting rotation. With Sonny Gray gone, they no longer have a true ace. Their best starter has been Michael McGreevy, but he still isn't exactly ace material.

Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report ranked all 30 major league teams' rotations and was pretty accurate with the Cardinals, putting them at No. 22 out of 30

"Cardinals pitching has been better than expected, but also luckier than deserved," Miller wrote. "They have the most concerning ratio of ERA (3.96) to expected ERA (5.11), which predominantly stems from the fact that they generate strikeouts at nearly the lowest rate in the majors. Michael McGreevy, in particular—2.18 ERA, 5.06 xERA—is probably headed for a sharp decline soon. But at least he has kept walks to a minimum with just 10 free passes in his eight starts."

What is holding the rotation back

May 7, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Matthew Liberatore (32) delivers during the first inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

The issue for the Cardinals is that they are largely a pitch-to-contact team. That can obviously work, but in the modern game, the analytics tend to favor things such as strikeouts and velocity. The Cardinals don't have anybody in their rotation that consistently generates swings and misses or throws close to 100 mph.

In fact, the Cardinals rotation has the third-fewest strikeouts in the National League at 159. They don't get the same swing and miss results that teams such as the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves do with their high octane pitchers.

That isn't exactly a recipe for success, and it is something that could come back and bite the Cardinals later on this season. Their best hope for correcting this is making sure that the pitchers they draft and develop are able to produce swings and misses and show off some high velocity.

They got a good start last summer by drafting Liam Doyle, but they'll need more pitchers in their system that can do just that, and that will set them up for a lot of future success on the mound.

It will be interesting to see what they can do with their pitching depth in the years to come.