Cardinals Handed Bulletin-Board Material With Brutal 2026 Projection

The St. Louis Cardinals aren't going to enter the 2026 Major League Baseball season with high expectations in the standings. That much is obvious after trading away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Brendan Donovan and Nolan Arenado away.

While this is the case, the perception of St. Louis around the league arguably is too low already. For example, Bleacher Report's Tim Kelly tabbed St. Louis as one of five teams who will have worse records in 2026 than it did in 2025. That isn't much of an aggressive take on first look, but Kelly suggested that the Cardinals could be a 90-plus loss team in 2026. That's the part that is a bit too aggressive.

"The Cardinals only won 78 games a year ago, but the way that Chaim Bloom operated in his first offseason as president of baseball operations, it's pretty clear they are headed for fewer victories in 2026," Kelly wrote. "As Bloom rebuilds the organization in his image — namely, he wants to improve the farm system — he traded away Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Brendon Donovan this offseason. Dustin May, who has never pitched more than 132.1 innings in a season, is projected to be the No. 2 starter in manager Oli Marmol's starting rotation. May — who signed a one-year, $12.5 million contract this offseason — is an interesting arm to take a risk on as a free agent.

The Cardinals can surprise people in 2026

Feb 16, 2026; Jupiter, FL, USA; St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn (0) fields a ground ball during spring training workouts at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images | Reinhold Matay-Imagn Images

"But he posted a 4.96 ERA between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox last year, and history tells us he's going to get hurt. It's one thing to take a flier on May as the No. 5 starter, but if he's pitching towards the top of your rotation, things are pretty bleak. Again, this may all work out in the long run for the Cardinals. Bloom has done a tremendous job building pipelines of talent in prior stops leading the Tampa Bay Rays and Red Sox. 2026 looks like it could be a 90-plus loss season, though, with four other teams in the NL Central that have playoff aspirations."

The Cardinals went 78-84 in 2025. Donovan, Arenado, Contreras and Gray are big-name guys, but the club arguably isn't in too much of a different spot. The Cardinals' rotation arguably is in a better place overall with the additions of Richard Fitts, Dustin May and Hunter Dobbins, among others. Losing Contreras at first base is tough, but Alec Burleson should be able to fill in well with minimal loss offensively. Losing Donovan is tough, but No. 1 prospect JJ Wetherholt appears poised to make the jump to the big leagues as a result.

Arenado missed time in 2025 and struggled offensively. If Nolan Gorman can take a step forward offensively, the Cardinals should be able to replace Arenado well.

The Cardinals have a young roster, but that doesn't mean bad. St. Louis may not contend for a World Series, but there's enough talent in the organization believe that 90-plus losses would be a stretch. The Cardinals went 71-91 in 2023. That was a brutal season and the Cardinals arguably are better on paper right now than that team was even with the trades.