Cubs Strong Start Makes Elusive Regular Season Award Craig Counsell's To Lose

The Chicago Cubs are a rock solid 7-4 heading into Sunday's series finale with the San Diego Padres. The Cubs enter that contest on a five-game winning streak, scoring 45 runs to just 11 allowed during that span.

Everything is going Chicago's way right now. They hold a one-game lead in the NL Central, despite having three more wins than the second-place St. Louis Cardinals and the third-place Milwaukee Brewers.

The Cubs opened the season in Japan against the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, giving both teams a head start on everyone else in baseball. Chicago lost both games in that series, meaning they are 7-2 against teams that aren't the Dodgers.

Cubs manager Craig Counsell is widely regarded as one of the best leaders in baseball, holding the Brewers' franchise record for career wins with 707 victories before joining Chicago last year. Despite his noteworthy accolades and reputation, Counsell has never won the Manager of the Year award.

Noteworthy team success is a general requirement for the manager of the year, while most winners tend to lead teams that exceed expectations to some degree. As an example, Los Angeles might have to break records for Dave Roberts to win the National League variant of that honor this season because the Dodgers are the defending champs and the consensus best team in the league.

Therefore, the NL manager of the year in 2025 will likely involve a team with a worse record than Los Angeles. Veteran NL East teams in the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and Atlanta Braves likely fit in that bucket as well.

One of the reasons this is a great year for Counsell to finally take home this elusive hardware is the skippers for those four playoff-caliber teams are close to cross offs in this race. With that in mind, let's take a look at the other early contenders for NL Manager of the Year.

San Francisco Giants manager Bob Melvin is Counsell's biggest threat early in the season, as the Giants are off to a hot 6-1 start. The Giants should still be viewed as a playoff-caliber team that has close to no shot of overcoming Los Angeles for the NL West crown.

However, if Melvin can get San Francisco to keep things interesting deep into September in the division race, he'll have a strong case for Manager of the Year. Further, if the Giants make the playoffs in any fashion, that would be considered an accomplishment that at least slightly exceeds expectations.

Padres manager Mike Schildt is in play as well, after San Diego's 7-2 start. That said, the Cubs account for both of the Padres losses to date, giving Chicago a direct edge over San Diego. One could also argue that the Padres are expected to be a playoff team, similar to the Mets and Phillies, giving Schildt a tougher case for being named the best manager in the NL at season's end.

Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol would have a strong case if St. Louis continues to exceed expectations, which they currently are with their 4-3 start. Long term it would be a genuine surprise if St. Louis ended up making the playoffs, but if they do Marmol likely takes home this prize.

Counsell's primary season-long competition is Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona.

The National League playoff picture is pretty top heavy as the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Braves and Padres are all expected to get in. In the NL East or West, another team will have to unseat one of those five clubs to either win their respective division or claim the final Wild Card spot.

That's why the 2025 NL manager of the year likely comes from the team that wins the NL Central. If it's the Brewers, Pat Murphy won last year and likely doesn't go back-to-back. But if it's the Cubs or Reds that win the division, chances are that manager wins the award.

It's still very early, but Chicago's 7-4 start gives them a notable, early advantage over Cincinnati's 3-6 start. The Reds, along with Milwaukee are the Cubs biggest challengers in the NL Central this season.

All things considered, this race is already Counsell's to lose.

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