How the Cubs' Ugly Free Fall Has Impacted Their Playoff Odds

The Chicago Cubs unprecedented nine-game skid has taken them from atop the NL Central on May 16 to outside the Wild Card.

May 25, 2026; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell (11) watches batting practice before the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

A lot can change in 10 days. Just ask the Chicago Cubs, whose unprecedented nine-game skid has taken them from atop the NL Central on May 16 all the way down to the outside looking in.

Following Monday's games, the Cubs are 29-25 and 3.5 games out of first place in the division, behind their bitter rivals in the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals. But it gets worse. They are also now out of the playoff race entirely, sitting 0.5 games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks, who hold the third NL Wild Card spot.

The consequences of the Cubs' losing streak aren't entirely surprising — they play in the only division in MLB in which every team has a winning record. Even after losing nine straight, the Cubs would still slot into second place in both the NL East and the AL Central. They'd lead the AL West by a good two games, and they have a better record than all but three AL teams.

The reality is that the Cubs can't change where they play or who they play. All they can do is stop the bleeding so things don't go from bad to catastrophic. That starts Tuesday night in Pittsburgh, where the Cubs will try to avoid dropping 10 in a row for the first time since 2022.

The Cubs could always go on another 10-game winning streak starting today, and things could very well change dramatically once again. That would not be at all a shock for a team that's been so streaky this season. But for now, let's take a look at their outlook in a cutthroat NL playoff race.

What Do The Cubs' Playoff Odds Look Like Now?

May 14, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) walks against the Atlanta Braves in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images | Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Cubs' postseason odds have fallen a whopping 21.7% in the last week, according to Baseball Reference. That's the largest drop-off in all of MLB during that time frame. Still, the site gives the Cubs the second-best chance in the division to make the postseason at 69%. That includes a 58.4% chance to be a Wild Card team and a 10.6% chance to win the division.

The first-place Brewers now have a 85.1% chance to win the division, per Baseball Reference. They are chasing a fourth consecutive division title and third straight under manager Pat Murphy.

Fangraphs' playoff odds are not as kind to the Cubs. The Fangraphs model projects that the Cubs have a 49.3% chance to make the playoffs, a 31.8,% chance to clinch a Wild Card spot, and a 17.5% chance to win the division.

Again, this can all change in the blink of an eye. The last couple of weeks have taught us exactly that. But this remains a sobering reality for a team that looked like a bona fide World Series contender earlier this season.

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