Chicago Cubs 'Idling' in Trade Deadline Aggressiveness

The Chicago Cubs are part of a large group of teams that could go either way when it comes to the MLB trade deadline, according to ESPN.

ESPN characterized the Cubs as a team that is ‘idling.’

The site ranked every team based on what should be their level of aggressiveness, using a variety of factors and 10,000 simulations to determine probable win totals and potential for a playoff berth.

ESPN rated the Cubs’ chances of reaching the postseason at just 15 percent. Using a simulation process, the ratings projected the Cubs to win 76.3 games, which is a drop from the 85 wins they were projected to claim earlier this season.

So what’s the biggest problem keeping the Cubs from knowing what direction to go? It might be knowing when to get the big hit, per ESPN:

The Cubs have scored the lowest percentage of their runs in high-leverage spots in baseball, but only one team has a higher rate in low-leverage. That's a fancy way of saying the Cubs' hitters have struggled when they've most needed to score and flourished when it's mattered the least. This feels like a team that is more like its well under .500 record than not. Still, one hot streak gets the Cubs back into the mix in the Central.

Even with the long postseason odds, the Cubs are not that far out of the NL Central race. The Cubs were just 6.5 games back of front-running Pittsburgh and Milwaukee entering Saturday’s action. In fact, the entire division from top to bottom was withing seven games of each other.

The rankings took into account factors like odds to reach the postseason, remaining schedule and strength of division. They also considered statistical data like run differential, roster strength, remaining schedule and used that data in 10,000 simulations to project win totals and postseason odds.

So, yes, one hot streak might just get the Cubs back in the hunt. Or it might make them sellers in late July.

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