Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Right-handed outfielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. had a successful first season with the D-backs after coming over from Toronto in the Daulton Varsho trade. He began 2023 with solid numbers, including an excellent month of May. He was tied with second baseman Ketel Marte for the second-most team RBI with 82, and hit 24 home runs in 2023. He was also named an all-star for the first time in his career, where he went 1-2 and was just a few feet shy of a game-tying home run.
He hit well in the playoffs, slashing .274/.292/.498 with three home runs and 11 RBI in October, and was one of the many key performers en route to a World Series berth.
Gurriel recently signed a three-year, $42 million extension with the 29-year old, including an opt-out after two years, and a club option for 2027. Gurriel took a relatively team-friendly deal compared to what he could have commanded elsewhere, noting his love for the organization and their treatment of him as a motivating factor to return.
The Projection
Alex D'Agostino
Gurriel's projections are an interesting blend of regression and improvement. Both ZiPS and Steamer expect a near 20-point increase in batting average, as his .261 in 2023 was a career low. His on-base percentage is also expected to rise by a similar number, while his slug and ISO (isolated power) are expected to both regress.
The slugging outfielder is expected to walk at a slightly higher rate, while hovering around a solid strikeout rate that's reminiscent of his previous season. He is expected to decrease in aWAR by almost a full win, which could be related to his defensive over-performance in 2023.
Both systems are projecting a significant decrease in RBI, with Steamer expecting 70, while ZiPS goes even lower to 68. Neither system expects him to surpass 17 home runs, and they both see a slight decrease in extra-base hits, although they do have him breaking 30 on that count, an above-average expectation.
Why Gurriel might outperform this projection
Gurriel was an instrumental piece of Arizona's excellent 2023 season. When the offense was struggling, Gurriel was one of the D-backs who helped to provide slug, and delivered critical hits and home runs in many high leverage situations.
He slashed an incredible .352/.416/.714/1.130 in May, with eight home runs and 18 RBI. For his 2023, he sat at or above average on nearly every hitting metric. He consistently made hard contact, sitting in the 77th percentile of hard-hit rate, and rarely missed, rating in the 84th percentile in whiff rate and 79th percentile in strikeouts.
By all accounts, his 2023, which looked very solid statistically, was a relative down year for the outfielder. He was also banged up for a portion of the season, and was likely playing through a groin injury for the stretch of the season where he did slump.
His projections seem realistic, but considering how hot Gurriel can get, and the rate at which he can produce, it's very possible to see an increase in those numbers. The projections expect such a sharp decrease in RBI and home runs, that even if he slightly decreases from 2023 he can outperform the composite expectations.
He also hit .301 against left-handed pitchers, and depending on how the D-backs address the DH slot, could see an increase in the percentage of his at bats coming against lefties, which could help maximize his efficiency.
He also offered the best arm value defensively of any of Arizona's outfield crew. Although Gurriel started 50 games in the DH slot, he also fielded at a perfect 1.000 rate in his 95 outfield appearances, and his range ranked in the 75th percentile, with two Outs Above Average and an 89th percentile overall arm value.
His underrated defense could easily contribute to a much higher aWAR than his projections, and if he couples that with even a similar RBI number, it could skyrocket his value as a player.
Why Gurriel might underperform this projection
Gurriel was a very streaky hitter in 2023. While he certainly could hit at an extremely hot rate, he also hit for barely .175 through the months of June and July. He also struggled to get on base in hitter-friendly counts, and his walk rate is well below average.
Basically, when Gurriel is not hitting, he's not getting on base. While his 82 RBI and 24 home runs were a huge boost to Arizona's offense, both of those numbers were career outliers.
It could be very difficult for Gurriel to recreate a season even close to as good as his 2023 was, beyond the pure averages. He also had a tendency to chase outside the zone, and struggled with vision and aggression on non-competitive pitches. He was just below average in both batting and base running run value, and any regression defensively could also hurt his aWAR and value as a player.
Additionally, his relative slowness could see him struggle on a team of jackrabbits if he's not the one providing slug and the ability to bring runners in.
Gurriel will hit 30 years old this season, coming off his career-low in batting average and on-base percentage. If he struggles with injury again, he could be in store for more down months, and any decrease in slug could significantly lower his value. If a left-handed DH or another outfield bat is added, he could see less opportunity to contribute on a daily basis.
Summary
Overall, Gurriel was a very solid player for the D-backs, both offensively and defensively. He's projected to have another productive season, improving in overall batting average, while regressing a bit in some other categories. He could be in store for a bounce back season, resembling his white-hot May, but if he's beginning his late career regression, he could struggle and underperform his projected averages for the second straight year.
