Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Ryne Nelson
This article is part of a series taking a look into individual Diamondbacks player projections as we head into the 2024 spring training. The projections presented are a composite of the rate (percentage) stats from Steamer and ZiPS as published on FanGraphs. The playing time projection is our own and is based on the current roster as of the time of this writing. Further roster changes will impact the playing time and thus the WAR projection, but not the rate or percentage statistics presented.
Ryne Nelson's first MLB action came over just 18 1/3 innings in 2022. In limited inning, he looked excellent, but soon began to devolve as he took a larger starting role in 2023. Although still a young pitcher with plenty of room to grow, Nelson was rarely able to put batters away or get swing and miss, and was hit hard all season. Despite spending some time in Triple-A, injuries to other members of the D-backs pitching staff necessitated regular contributions from Nelson, and while there were some bright spots, it was frequently ugly too. Nelson then transitioned to a long relief role in the postseason, and while he showed some minor flashes of improvement, still finished his playoff experience with a 5.68 ERA.
The Projection
Alex D'Agostino
Nelson's projections offer an improvement, no doubt, but are somewhat concerning due to the relative lack of return to the mean. However, this is mainly the fault of Steamer, since ZiPS sees an improvement to a much more solid 4.32 ERA, while Steamer has him nearing 5.00 again, with his FIP (fielding independent pitching) being higher than his ERA by both accounts.
One of Nelson's biggest issues comes from his lack of a strikeout arsenal, and while his strikeout percentage is expected to improve, a 17.6% 2024 still sits well below average, as does his projected 1.34 home runs per nine innings.
Here at Inside the Diamondbacks we project Nelson for 89 innings, getting some starts and working out of the bullpen in a long man or swing role. While smaller sample sizes can account for spiked numbers, even the more optimistic projections expect Nelson to have a difficult year, even in the event of some improvement.
Why Nelson might outperform this projection
Nelson is young, and we've seen young pitchers who have the initial signs of being a lost cause find a way to improve drastically before. Considering 2023 was Nelson's only season of more than three major league appearances, he could benefit from some more time in the big leagues.
Nelson spent a large portion of his college career as a reliever, so transitioning him to a full time relief role could end up helping him find his comfort zone against major league hitters.
Nelson has solid velocity on his fastball, and an arsenal of five pitches. His fastball and slider both show above average movement. If he is smarter with his location and pitch sequencing, he could use his weapons to his advantage.
Nelson had a solid 3.74 ERA in just four starts in Triple-A Reno, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and some more stability in both the starting rotation and bullpen could offer the right-hander the support and ability to develop more as a pitcher. Pitching coach Brent Strom has been known to work miracles before with younger pitchers, exemplified most by right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, so a jump in development by the 25-year old Nelson is not out of the question.
Nelson allowed a .200 slugging percentage in high leverage, but struggled to put batters away in pitcher friendly counts. If he can figure out how to deliver the knockout punch in hitter matchups, he can become significantly more effective on the mound.
Considering his composite projections are still relatively low, and his 2023 season was well below average statistically, it wouldn't require radical improvement to outperform a lower standard.
Why Nelson might underperform this projection
Nelson's pitching run value ranked in the bottom 3% of MLB last season (-23). He ranked near or in the bottom 10% in chase rate, whiff rate and strikeout percentage, which would lend logical fans to believe that he relied on soft contact.
This was not the case. In addition to being in the 22nd percentile in ground ball rate (37.5%), the young starter was hit very hard, ranking in the bottom 10% of MLB in hard hit rate and barrel rate.
Even in Triple-A, he had a difficult time putting batters away. He struck out just nine total batters over four starts in his short minor league stint.
Nelson tends to go "bombs away" with his fastball, throwing hard but keeping it out over the plate for hitters. He throws his fastball nearly 55% of the time, despite the fact that his fastball has a worse run value (-13) than both his breaking and off-speed pitches combined (-7 total run value).
He never showed a monthly ERA in the majors below 4.10 in 2023, and while some months were certainly better than others, he did consistently get hit hard and struggle to put guys away.
A season as tough as 2023 was for Nelson can take a mental toll on pitchers, so it's possible he will continue to struggle, and with fewer opportunities to start games, he might not be able to work out the kinks in his game quickly enough to outperform a modest projection.
Summary
Nelson was a difficult watch in 2023. His projections show some improvement, but are still concerning when you examine his home run and strikeout numbers. His FIP being projected above his ERA suggests that these systems see even an improvement in the ERA department being the result of better batted ball luck or defensive play. With left-hander Tommy Henry being the de facto choice to take the final starting spot, it's likely that Nelson won't see significant starting action unless an injury occurs, but an opportunity to come out of the bullpen might allow the young right-hander to develop into a more effective arm.
