Can the Diamondbacks get Back to a Pool Celebration?

A tough start to the season has set Arizona back. Here is a look at by how much

The Diamondbacks have not gotten off to the start they hoped for with an 11-13 record through 24 games. That's resulted in a drop of their playoff odds from well over 50% to start the season to just 33% as of the morning of April 23rd. Their current position in the standings is 2.0 games behind the Dodgers for first place in the NL West and 2.0 games back of a Wild Card spot.

The team has been beset by a slew of injuries to key players. The injury list includes No. 3 starter Eduardo Rodriguez and closer Paul Sewald, neither of whom has thrown a pitch this season. Starting center fielder Alek Thomas and starting shortstop Geraldo Perdomo have played in four and seven games respectively. More recently Ryne Nelson was added to the injured list and perhaps the biggest blow of all is looming with a potential injured list stint for Merrill Kelly.

The team has also performed near the bottom on both offense and pitching in late and close, high-leverage situations, resulting in a 5-10 record in games decided by three runs or less. Their +26 run differential is largely the result of two outlier games, a 16-1 thrashing of the Rockies on Opening Day and a 17-1 drubbing of the Giants last Friday. The D-backs are not playing good, tight baseball in more than half of their games so far.

The D-backs under Torey Lovullo have shown their resiliency before, and they will have to muster every bit of that trait to make their way back to the Postseason in 2024. The chart below is a snapshot of their current projected win totals and playoff percentages. These are derived from the average of Baseball Prospectus' Pecota Standings, Fangraphs Playoff Odds, and Baseball Reference Playoff Odds reports.

Diamondbacks Playoff Odds as of morning of April 23

Jack Sommers

The first thing that will stand out to you is the large gap between Baseball Reference and the other two systems. That may seem like an extreme outlier, but it's simply a function of how the different systems base their projection. Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs base their simulations on the individual player projections for the rest of the season, adding up the run values to determine the number of wins from here on out and add that to the current total of wins.

Baseball-Reference bases their projections on the team's last 100 regular season games and their SRS sytem which weighs strength of schedule and run differential. A more detailed explanation for their methodology can be found at this link.

Dating back to July 5, 2023, the D-backs are 45-55 in the regular season, with 444 runs scored and 467 allowed for a -23 run differential. In case you're wondering, none of the projection systems take postseason performance into account. Last year the D-backs were 10-7 with 73 runs scored and 67 allowed for a +7 run differential in the Postseason.

This is a snapshot in time. If the D-backs can get healthy, and their returning players are not affected by their injuries, then they should do better, especially in close games, where things tend to even out anyway. But their margin for error has shrunk. As of right now they are on the outside looking in for a return to the playoffs, and have a greatly reduced margin for error going forward. While it's just April 23rd, it's early until it isn't, as the saying goes.