How Would Adding Jordan Montgomery Impact the Diamondbacks?

Weekend rumors linked the free agent pitcher to the D-backs. We take a look at what that would look like for Arizona.

Over the weekend the intriguing potential for the Diamondbacks to add left-handed free agent starter Jordan Montgomery to their roster emerged. This was kick started when former GM and current Athletic writer Jim Bowden posted on X that the D-backs were a dark horse candidate to land Montgomery.

The Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro reported that the Diamondbacks have contacted Montgomery’s representation over the past few days. That action may be related to   the news that Eduardo Rodriguez will begin the season on the IL with Left Lat Strain.

While there seems to be multiple teams bidding now for Montgomery’s services, making the D-backs perhaps a long shot to actually land him, it’s intriguing to consider the possibilities and the potential impact such a signing would have.

Payroll Structure

It’s not known what it will actually take to sign him at this point. Early in the off season it was projected by many pundits that Montgomery would get a deal anywhere between five years and $105 million to six years and $150 million.  Scott Boras is his agent however and his clients have not done nearly as well as projected this year.  Players such as Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger, and J.D. Martinez all signed late and had to take shorter deals with much less total value than was projected.

The Diamondbacks payroll meanwhile is already estimated to be between $145-150 million, already a franchise record.  That number was driven up by the addition of Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million contract.  How much higher owner Ken Kendrick is willing to go, or whether Montgomery would be willing to defer a sizable portion of his salary is unknown.  The D-backs signing Montgomery at full cost seems unlikely.

Slotting into the Rotation

Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Montgomery, a healthy Rodriguez, plus Brandon Pfaadt one through five would be one of the top rotations in the league.  Should Rodriguez' injury end up being more serious than is currently being communicated by the player and team however, then filling the void becomes a burning issue for the D-backs.

As of right now they will enter the season with three young starters in Pfaadt, Tommy Henry, and Ryne Neslon in the rotation.  Pfaadt had a 5.72 ERA last year before excelling the post season. Henry has a 4.57 ERA and 5.23 FIP in 136 career innings and suffered an elbow injury towards the end of last year.  He’s recovered, but had an up and down spring.  Nelson won the 5th starter spot over Henry with a strong spring, but he has a 4.88 ERA in 162 career innings.  In other words, without Rodriguez, the team is very exposed in the rotation.  Adding Montgomery fixes a lot of problems.

Projecting Montgomery

Over the past three season Montgomery has averaged 31 starts and 175 innings, posting a 3.48 and 3.62 FIP.  His park and league adjusted 121 ERA+ is considered roughly 20% better than league average. By both Baseball-reference and Fangraphs WAR metrics that production has made him a 3-WAR pitcher.  Because he doesn’t typically go very deep into games however he does not get a lot of decisions.  He’s 25-24 over his last 94 starts.

Most projection systems see him as posting an ERA closer to 3.90 in 2024.  This is mostly due to pitcher aging curves. But Montgomery hasn’t lost any velocity and is also coming off a postseason in which he threw 24 innings with a 3.75 ERA. The left hander doesn’t strike out a lot of batters, but induces solid groundball and double play rates.

Competing in the NL West and NL Wild Card Race

Recent additions by the Giants, (Blake Snell) and the Padres (Dylan Cease) may be creating a sense of urgency for the D-backs to keep up. Those teams have certainly closed the gap on paper with these signings and other additions. The NL Wild Card race in general looks to be a dog fight with as many as eight to ten teams competing for just three spots. The Dodgers meanwhile loom as a large presence in the division. They added Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow to the rotation and will get Walker Buehler back at some point.

The D-backs are coming off a World Series appearance and are hungry to get back to the game's biggest stage and complete unfinished business. Adding a pitcher like Montgomery would be one more solid step in that direction.