MLB's Slow Pace of Play Goes Against Tradition

With the announcement that MLB will be instituting a pitch timer for the 2023 season there has been a large outcry, mostly from people who might consider themselves traditionalists. "There are no clocks in baseball" is a familiar refrain seen and heard. While that's certainly been the case in MLB up until now, there is nothing about the current glacial pace of play, lack of balls in play and action, and resulting time of game increases we've seen over the last decade that is traditional. The current state of the game bears little resemblance to the way the game was played just 10 years ago, let alone decades earlier.

The sudden jump in time of game that has taken place in the game over the last 10 years, as can be seen in the chart below, is a symptom of the underlying problem with the state of play today. There is too little action, too few balls in play that involve the defense, too many strikeouts, too much reliance on home runs, too many 6, 7 and 8-pitch walks, i.e. "Three True Outcomes" baseball, or 3TO for short.

All of those outcomes take more pitches thrown, (from 3.68 Pitches/PA in 1991 to 3.89 in 2022) The time between pitches has grown by more than 10% over time as well. More pitches, more time between pitches, and few balls in play adds up to a lot of dead time. More than at any time in the history of the game.

Many will argue that the main culprit is the "approach" of the hitters and pitchers. That's only partly true. Pitchers are indeed more likely to go for the strikeout and hitters are trying to hit a homer more often than at any time in history. But MLB has facilitated that approach by allowing players to take so much time between pitches. Simply put, keeping pitchers and hitters focused and moving at a "normal" pace induces more pitch and hit to contact outcomes. Look at the 10 year rolling average for time of game above, and compare that to the increase in 4TO* baseball.

* I use 4TO because I include Hit By Pitch which have also doubled since the 1980's

It's the added time between pitches that has fed the jumps in 4TO, not the other way around. (You will note that there is a dip in 2022 in 3TO outcomes. That has mostly come from deadening the ball and reducing homers, although strikeouts are down slightly. MLB's changes to the ball are a completely different discussion.) But the point remains and is clear from the data produced in MiLB since testing began. Not only has the time of game in minor league games using a pitch timer decreased by 26 minutes, but more importantly balls in play, batting average, and yes stolen bases have increased, and 4TO% has decreased.

Clearly something had to be done. Baseball was trending towards 3:15 minute average game times and 40% 4TO outcomes. If anything MLB has been too conservative and slow implementing these changes. They first began experimenting with pitch timers at least as early as 2014 in the Arizona Fall League.

Despite the massive amount of testing and data to support this decision, the players union put out a statement opposing this rule change. Many veteran players have spoken out against the change. That's to be expected. This is the game they have played the last 10 years. Nobody likes change, and there will be a period of adjustment. However most if not all of the new players that have come into the league over the last few years have already played under pitch timer conditions in the minor leagues and college. They will likely adapt more quickly. Certainly there will be some players more affected than others. We touched on this yesterday. But adapt they must.

I am sure we will see a lot of news stories in spring training and the early months of 2023 highlighting player complaints and various incidents and snafus due to implementation. The first time a player gets called out on strikes for being out of the box after 9 seconds in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and a runner in scoring position is sure to be a big news day. But by the time we get to the summer those stories, like the pitch timer itself, will no longer be a focal point. In fact the number of violations has shown to decrease as players play more games.

Before they know it, players will be playing at a similar pace to that ancient time period known as the early 2000's.