Taking Inventory of Diamondbacks First 23 Games

Torey Luvollo is leading a mix of veterans and young player into contention

Back in March we highlighted the Diamondbacks difficult early schedule to start the 2023 season. The initial 23 games have come almost exclusively against opponents that teams that either were in the playoffs or above .500 in 2023. That included the Dodgers, Padres, Brewers and Cardinals. The lone exception to playing winning teams in this 23 game span were the Miami Marlins, who ironically took two of three in Miami. 

Any way you slice the results  the team's 12-11 record is extremely encouraging, despite a -4 run differential. (110 RS, 114 RA). If you asked most fans and pundits if they could lock in an above .500 record  for these 23 games they would take you up on that. Being tied for first place with the Dodgers, and a half game up on the Padres on April 24th, and not scheduled to play either until August is a major plus.

Lovullo read  and heard from a lot of people about the early schedule challenges, but his response to that was positive as always.  

"I said it would be a great test for us, and no matter how we come out of that record wise we're going to be better off for it. The fact that we've come out a little bit ahead, I'm excited about. But we do have a long way to go. This is a long journey. "

 The team just dropped three of four games against the Padres at home however. They were competitive and had a chance to win each game but there are issues that must be dealt with if they are to have sustained success going forward. As the team gets ready to move forward with the next phase of the season, lets take inventory of how they are performing in the various areas of the game

TEAM STAT PAGES

Pitching:

At the team level, the pitching has been below average. The D-backs rank 23rd in ERA (4.84), and their peripherals are even a little worse than that (5.08 FIP) due to the second highest walk percentage in MLB. They also have the 8th highest HR/9 rate (1.43). That number is skewed heavily in the bullpen, where the relievers have given up 1.77 HR/9.

Zac Gallen (3-1, 2.59 ERA) has jumped out in front of the NL Cy Young race with three straight fantastic outings. He's leading the league in innings pitched,  strikeouts, and WHIP.  He's also working on another scoreless steak which is up to 21.2 innings. Merrill Kelly has a 3.42 ERA in five starts, but is struggling with walks and inconsistency.  Zach Davies is on the injured list with an oblique injury and the team was forced to cut ties with Madison Bumgarner by DFA'ing him last week.  Two rookies are already in the starting rotation now, Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson. Both have been up and down so far, with the most recent trend being negative.  Tommy Henry, another young pitcher in just  his second year in the league, joins the rotation today replacing Bumgarner. 

Andrew Chafin has a 3.52 ERA and thee saves, but four of eight inherited runners have scored. Chafin has already worked in 10 of 23 games, and perhaps due to over use early on has had a few rough outings lately.  Kyle Nelson (0.93 ERA in 9.2 IP) and Miguel Castro (2.00 ERA in 9.0 IP) have been excellent in high leverage roles in the pen. All the other relievers have been inconsistent, giving up too many walks, homers, and runs. With only three reliable relievers, it's been a difficult juggling act for Lovullo.

Offense:

The D-backs rank 12th in MLB in runs scored and 15th in OPS.  They are getting hits, ranking 6th in batting average (.261, but they've taken the fewest walks in MLB (45) and are in the lower third in home runs.  The team had 17 stolen bases in their first 10 games, but just four in their last 13 games.  A big part of that may have been due to playing the Dodgers, who do not control the running game well. But not taking their walks is impacting the stolen base opportunities. 

Geraldo Perdomo surprisingly leads the team in OPS, (1.009). Corbin Carroll (.822 OPS), and Ketel Marte (.802 OPS) have been streaky but overall doing well.  But Christian Walker (.695 (OPS) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr (.665 OPS) have yet to truly get untracked, although both are showing signs.  Pavin Smith and Evan Longoria have provided a boost off the bench, but Jake McCarthy (.477 OPS) have Alek Thomas (.616 OPS) have both slumped. 

Base running

The team had 17 stolen bases in their first 10 games, but just four in their last 13 games. A big part of that may have been due to playing the Dodgers in eight of their first 10 games, as L.A. does not control the running game well. But not taking their walks is impacting the stolen base opportunities too. Carroll leads the with eight stolen bases.  The fastest man in baseball has accounted for +2 of the team's +5 base running runs which is the second most in MLB.

Defense

Their +17 defensive runs saved is also second best in MLB according to Baseball Reference. Catcher Gabriel Moreno has been a revelation behind the plate, throwing out five of 8 base stealers  and has +4 defensive runs saved. Shortstop Perdomo (+3),  third baseman Josh Rojas (+3), second baseman  Marte (+2), and  first baseman Walker (+3) have formed one of the best infields in the league. McCarthy is +3 in the outfield, but surprisingly, Thomas is -4 so far. 

SUMMARY

Distilling it down into the simplest form, the D-backs have played scrappy baseball, never giving up, and always fighting back. The broadcast booth has taken to calling them the "Answer Backs" due to their penchant for responding to the other team's scoring runs by scoring in crooked numbers of their own right back.  But issuing the second most walks while taking the least amount of walks is not a recipe for long term success. Nor is getting out homered 32-21.  The team can only count on timely hitting and comebacks so much. The fundamentals will need to improve if they are to compete for a playoff spot deep into the summer. 

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