The Risks and Rewards of Alex Bregman for the Diamondbacks

A detailed breakdown of the third base market and historical comparisons sheds light on Alex Bregman's value and risks

Houston Astros third base Alex Bregman bats against the Detroit Tigers during the fourth inning at Comerica Park, May 12, 2024. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks exploded on the scene as a strong potential suitor for free agent third baseman Alex Bregman this week.

Questions abound about how the Diamondbacks could make this work, from a financial and roster standpoint. That includes the questions surrounding a potential Ketel Marte trade, and even the possibility the Diamondbacks could keep Marte and sign Bregman.

The focus of this article however is on Bregman himself, and more to the point, what he can be projected to produce going forward and what type of contract structure makes sense the player and the Diamondbacks.

Alex Bregman Career Arc

Alex Bregman was an elite, MVP-candidate player in 2018 and 2019. He finished fifth and second in the AL MVP voting those two years thanks to averaging a .970 OPS (157 OPS+) and 8.2 WAR per season. Since then, however, he's been very good, but not nearly the same level of player.

Tossing out the 2020 Pandemic season altogether, and just focusing on 2021 through 2025, Bregman averaged 3.8 WAR and a .799 OPS. That is a significant drop-off from the MVP-caliber work he was doing before the Pandemic.

Two of those five seasons were interrupted by a somewhat serious quad injury. He was out from June 16, 2021 through August 25 of that year, and played in just 91 games. Then last year he was on the disabled list from May 24 through July 11 with another quad injury.

Top 6 third basemen since 2021

Despite no longer being an MVP candidate, Bregman still ranks within the top six players at his position over the last five years. That list is dominated by Jose Ramirez, who is head and shoulders above every other third baseman (and is criminally underpaid). Note this list includes players who had 50% or more of their games at the position.

Top MLB Third Baseman since 2021 | Jack Sommers

Ramirez signed a seven-year, $141 million contract extension with the Guardians that covers 2022-2028, ending with his age-35 season.

Austin Riley signed a 10-year, $212 million contract extension with the Braves covering 2023-2032, ending with his age 35-season, and a team option for age 36. Riley signed while still arbitration-eligible, so his average annual is a bit lower. He's also cratered the last two seasons due to injury and poor performance.

Matt Chapman signed a six-year, $151 million contract extension with the Giants covering 2025-2030, which ends after his age-37 season.

Manny Machado signed a 10-year, $319 million contract in 2019, then opted out and signed a new deal for 11 years, $350 million through 2033, his age-40 season

Rafael Devers signed a 10-year, $314 million contract for 2024 through 2033, through his age-36 season. Of course he was moved off third base last year to give way to Bregman, and is now the Giants' first baseman or DH.

The average annual for the above players works out to about $26 million, with the average contract ending after the player's age-37 season.

What Kind of Contract Makes sense for Alex Bregman?

With the above list of comparable players, it's understandable why Bregman and his agent Scott Boras would be pushing for a deal at least six years in length. He just opted out of a three-year, $120 million deal after just one year. Leaving two years, $80 million on the table, contract length is of paramount concern to Bregman.

Six years, $156 million would seem to be the floor for the Bregman camp in what they're seeking, and it could well be higher. That would take him through his age-37 season.

Using a simple surplus value calculator, and estimating Bregman's production with a starting point of 3.7 WAR for 2026, we estimate it would take between 14-15 WAR for the life of a six-year deal to reach an approximate break even point. This is based on 1 WAR = $11 million in value.

Alex Bregman Contract Value Calculator | Jack Sommers

The Risks of Such a Contract for the Diamondbacks

The first issue to be resolved is whether or not the Diamondbacks can swing such a contract without having to trade superstar second baseman Ketel Marte. In a recent article I put forth the estimate of over $81 million surplus value due to Marte's production levels and team-friendly contract.

Related Content: What Ketel Marte is Really Worth to the Diamondbacks

If the Diamondbacks swap out Marte to afford Bregman, there is a net loss of projectable production, plain and simple. However the question becomes whether or not the return for Marte would outweigh the downgrade, and put the team in a better position to win overall. These are unknowns of course.

The second issue is the actual track record of players similar to Bregman from ages 27-31 following that age-31 season. It's a very mixed bag, and puts into doubt whether such a large contract extension is worthwhile.

How things work out for Riley, Chapman, Machado, and Devers going forward is unknown. However we do have history to guide us with players of the past.

Below is a list of comparable third basemen to Bregman for ages 27-31:

Comparable Third Baseman Ages 27-31 | Jack Sommers

And below is what they did between ages 32-37. Note not all of these players made it to age 37 in their careers. Some fell well short. Of course lacking a long-term contract to take them through that age is part of the reason there.

Alex Bregman Comps Age 32-37 | Jack Sommers

The above table is not a projection. Rather consider it a range of outcomes. Two of the players, Paul Molitor and Justin Turner, were extremely productive during that age span. If Bregman produced to that level, meaning zero dropoff from his previous five seasons, the deal would be well worth it, and then some.

Don Money, who is a very comparable player in terms of balance of production between offense and defense, albeit from the 1970's, only played in 377 more games, and declined considerably.

David Wright and Troy Glaus suffered career ending injuries, cutting short their ability to play major league baseball.

That is the risk you take when you sign a player to a long term deal. Comparing to other third basemen in the league right now, the contract demands from Bregman are reasonable. The question is whether this is a reasonable risk to take for the Arizona Diamondbacks.