Jordan Lawlar's Strong Start Could Force the Diamondbacks' Hand

Diamondbacks' top prospect Jordan Lawlar has pushed the issue with regard to a potential call-up later this season. In his first 21 games with Triple-A Reno, he is slashing .325/.423/.627 with five home runs and eight stolen bases while splitting time at second base, third base, and shortstop.

Even accounting for the high run-scoring environment of the Pacific Coast League, Lawlar's offense is well above the average player. FanGraphs rates his offensive output as 53% better than the average player with a 153 wRC+. Among players with at least 20 games played in the PCL, it ranks as the top figure.

On the surface level, those are excellent numbers to begin the season. At 22 years old, Lawlar is very young for the Triple-A level. So far this season, only three of his 98 plate appearances involved facing a pitcher younger than him. At the same time, we're only about an eighth of the way through baseball season. The sample size is still relatively small, and he still has some growing left to do in the minor leagues, where he can get consistent reps.

Evaluating a player's performance goes beyond the simple number seen on the back of a baseball card. This early in the season, sample sizes can be misleading if there is a significant deviation in the underlying statistics. That's where metrics such as strikeout rate, walk rate, chase rate, and quality of contact come into play.

Starting with the basics, Lawlar has 25 strikeouts and 12 walks in his 98 plate appearances. The strikeout rate is a bit high, at 25.5%, for a hitter whose speed and athleticism are a major component of his offensive game.

At the same time, a high walk rate of 12.2% should be viewed as an encouraging sign for the same reasons, as it increases the number of opportunities his plus-plus speed (30.0 ft/s Sprint Speed) can make an impact.

When there is a high strikeout rate, the natural questions are if there is a swing-and-miss issue on pitches in the strike zone and/or he's chasing outside the zone too much. That doesn't appear to be the case when looking at his plate discipline numbers.

Lawlar's 24.4% chase rate and 87.6% Zone Contact rate are higher than the major league averages in both metrics. With both those numbers in mind, it's likely the strikeout rate will naturally come down as he gets more plate appearances.

With Lawlar's plate discipline trending in the right direction, the question is how well he's hitting the ball. Statcast has tracked 54 batted ball events, with 23 classified as hard-hit (95.0+ MPH exit velocity) and 16 of them hit over 100 MPH.

Of 77 players that have put at least 50 balls in play at the Triple-A level, Lawlar ranks 29th in total number of batted balls and 23rd in 100 MPH exit velocity rate (29.6%).

While Lawlar isn't necessarily ripping the cover off the ball every time he steps up to the plate, he is making the right type of contact at an exceptional rate at his level. 25.4% of his batted balls are in the air and to his pull field, the 10th highest rate on the same list of hitters. On such contact, he's batting .733 with a slugging percentage of 1.267 and four barrels.

When looking at a potential breakout at the plate, more contact in the air to the pull side is critical. That type of contact typically turns into extra-base hits, creating easier opportunities to score runs for an offense. In Lawlar's case, it bodes well for future power projection. He's among the top prospects in the game due to his ability to play shortstop at a high level and project for 20+ home run power.

It's important to delve into the batted ball data because the Pacific Coast League can inflate offensive output. Many of the ballparks play small due to high elevation and wind tunnels carrying balls out. What might be a home run in Reno may be an out in the majority of the major league ballparks.

One notable example is Lawlar's home run against Salt Lake on April 13. That batted ball recorded an exit velocity of 95.4 MPH and a launch angle of 37 degrees but was carried out by the wind. Typically that type of batted ball results is an out at most major league parks, where the elements have less impact on the flight of batted balls.

Even with that caveat, it's pretty clear that Lawlar is making the most of his opportunities in Reno. However, given the current roster construction, there isn't currently an opportunity for him to play every day at a position. When Ketel Marte went down with a hamstring injury on April 4, they opted to go with Tim Tawa, a more experienced option at second base.

On his appearance on Wolf & Luke on the 16th, Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen was asked about Lawlar (around the 9:30 mark). Hazen cited the need to get more reps at second base since he's played primarily short and third in his career to date.

Even though he's shown the speed and athleticism to handle those other positions, it takes time to get used to playing on the other side of second base. The throws, the timing and rhythm of plays, and defensive responsibilities are much different at second compared to short. That's something the Diamondbacks want him to grow more comfortable with before putting him on the field in a major league game.

That suggests the team isn't confident enough with Lawlar's defense at second base to put him in the lineup right now. His athleticism and above-average range profiles well for the position, as making off-platform throws is a strength of his. It's just a matter of getting more consistent at all the nuances of his new position.

When they do call up Lawlar they'll want him to be as comfortable as possible for a smoother transition. Learning a new position while adjusting to major league pitching is a steep ask for someone still yet to establish himself in the big leagues. That doesn't mean a future opportunity won't open up; it just means the current situation isn't a good one for him to develop, as Marte will be back within the next couple of weeks.

All things could change in an instant, but given his performance through the first four weeks of the season, he's showing that he's ready for the next opportunity when it comes around.