D-backs Push for Series Win Behind Merrill Kelly

The Diamondbacks (56-49) and Mariners (53-51) square off for the rubber match of their three game series today, first pitch is 1:10 P.M.

Pitching Matchup

Merrill Kelly, 9-4- 3.12 ERA is making his second start since coming off a one month stint on the injured list due to a blood clot in his left calf. Kelly has developed into a co-ace with good friend and locker mate Zac Gallen. The two right-handers lockers sit right next to each other in the D-backs clubhouse and they can often be seen talking and joking with each. Both pitchers are similar in that they are cerebral in their approach to pitching, use a full slate of pitches, and are able to articulate what they are trying to do and where they need to improve.

Kelly's season line through 17 starts, 101 innings pitched only tells part of the story. Nicknamed "Merrill the Mainstay" he's averaged six innings per start and the only outing he failed to complete at least the 5th was his first start of the year on March 31st when his pitch count was limited to 74. ( he allowed zero runs in 3.2 innings against the Dodgers opening weekend). The team sorely missed having him out there every fifth day during the month he missed and it's critical for the team's success that he finish the season strong, especially in lieu of thenews earlier today that Tommy Henry had to go on the IL with left elbow inflammation.

Luis Castillo is 6-7, with a 3.02 ERA in 21 starts, 125.1 innings pitched for Seattle this year. He was traded by the Reds at least year's trade deadline and despite his won-loss record he's been one of the better pitchers in baseball not only this year but since he entered the league. Previously pitching in the extremely hitter/homer friendly ballpark in Cincinnati, he has a park adjusted ERA+ of 126. (100 = league average). Among pitchers with at least 600 innings pitched since 2017, (91 in all) That ranks 17th, and his 983 innings is the 13th most in MLB since 2017. Report Link from Baseball Reference

Castillo has a 96.3 MPH four seam fastball he throws 43% of the time and a sinker that comes in at 95.8 he uses 17%. He uses the slider 22% and change up 16%. The changeup is by far the weakest pitch in his arsenal, and as a result he does have a sizable gap in his platoon splits as that pitch is used against left hand batters. For his career right hand batters have just a .617 OPS against him while left hand batters have a .727 OPS.

An interesting shift for Castillo has been his ground ball/fly ball ratio. He averaged a 53% ground ball rate vs. aa 28% fly ball rate during his years in Cincinnati. This year he has just a 40% ground ball rate while his fly ball rate has jumped to 42%. That's likely a conscious choice in approach and location as Cincinnati has the most homer friendly park in MLB while T-Mobile park in Seattle is one of the least hitter and homer friendly parks.

Lineups

Despite Castillo's left right platoon splits, the slumping Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is back in the lineup today in left field, with both Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy getting the day off. Gurriel is hitting .289 with a .787 OPS against left hand pitching but just .231 with a .725 OPS against right hand pitchers. He has been hitting fly ball pitchers better this year however, with a .279 average and .835 OPS. As Castillo is now a fly ball pitcher, this could be a factor in the lineup choice. More likely it's just to get players rest and Lovullo is probably trying to get Gurriel going again. Since May 23rd he's batting .182 with a .572 OPS in 202 plate appearances. Getting Gurriel untracked is going to be a key component for any D-backs attempt at a playoff run.

Bullpens

The D-backs used Kevin Ginkel for 19 pitches last night. One of the reasons Torey Lovullo pulled him with one out in the 9th was because he wanted to have Ginkel available for today as well. If he had thrown another 10 pitches to close out the game then he would not be available for today's game.

The Mariners probably don't have Andres Munoz and his 100 MPH fastball available as he's worked three of the last four days. Just about everyone else should be available.