Diamondbacks Seek Answers Against the Mets

The Diamondbacks will try to salvage a split of their four-game series against the Mets today at Citi Field. The first pitch is at 1:10 P.M. MST, 4:10 P.M. EST. After stealing a 4-3 win on Monday night, the Mets have beaten the D-backs 7-4 and 7-1 in the last two games.

Preview

The Mets' dominance over the Diamondbacks over the last several years has been undeniable. They've simply had the D-backs number. The last time the D-backs won the season series was 2017. Since 2018 the D-backs are 8-24 versus the Metropolitans and over the last two seasons are 3-9, including 1-5 this year.

The D-backs are tied with the Reds for the 3rd Wild Card, both teams owning a 76-71 record. The Giants and Marlins are right behind with 75-71 records. All three of those other teams hold the head-to-head season record tiebreaker over the D-backs, meaning Arizona must win one more game than any of them to get in the playoffs. With 15 games remaining, it looks like the D-backs must go 10-5 to get to at least 86 wins, and hope none of the other teams gets hot enough to reach the same number.

Roster Move:

Catcher Gabriel Moreno was reinstated from the paternity list, and Jose Herrera was optioned back to Triple-A Reno after last night's game. Moreno's wife gave birth to a son. The Diamondbacks are 49-31 when Moreno starts, and 27-40 when he does not. While that stat has been oft repeated lately, it's slightly misleading as Moreno started the bulk of the first 65 games when the rest of the team was hitting much better. Nonetheless, he is a key part of the team's success and should be a finalist for the NL Catcher Gold Glove award, if not outright win it. His return comes not a moment too soon.

Pitching Matchup

Merrill Kelly and Kodai Senga are two very evenly matched pitchers, as can be seen in the table above. Their results are nearly identical.

Kelly gutted out a win in his most recent outing on September 9th against the Cubs, giving up just one run in 5.2 innings despite walking five batters. He's thrown six quality starts in his last 10 outings and just missed a 7th by one out. (6 or more IP, 3 or fewer earned runs = quality start) He'll need to do at least that today if the D-backs are to have a chance to get back in the win column.

Senga has a quality start in six straight outings, and seven of his last eight, also missing by just one out to record eight straight quality starts. The 30-year-old rookie from Japan has a 2.68 ERA and allowed just a .218 batting average against over that stretch. Senga was magnificent on July 5th against the D-backs going eight innings and giving up one run, four hits, one walk, and a whopping 12 strikeouts.

Lineups

The lone run against Senga on July 5th came off the bat of Christian Walker that briefly gave the D-backs a 1-0 lead. (Andrew Chafin blew it in the 9th for a 2-1 loss). Walker started off September hot, going 8-23 with two homers, but has been ice cold on this road trip, going just 2-28 (both singles) and zero RBI in his last seven games. If the Diamondbacks offense is going to get back on track, it will need to start with Walker.

Kelly has not faced the Mets since 2021 so there isn't a lot of head-to-head track record, but Pete Alonso is 4-13, with three homers against Kelly in his career.

Bullpens

Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald should be well rested, having not pitched since Monday night and only twice in the last week. Hopefully, the D-backs will be in the game late and give them a chance to lock down a win. Ginkel has been the most valuable Diamondbacks reliever in 2023. In 60 innings he has a 2.26 ERA and a 9-0 record. He's also four for five in save chances. His 1.3 WAR leads all relief pitchers on the team as well.

Mets setup men Drew Smith and Trevor Gott each worked last night and two of the last three, so they might not be available today. The rest of the Mets bullpen should be available including co-closers Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley.