Mets at Diamondbacks Game Preview July 5th

The Mets and Diamondbacks play game two of a three game series tonight at 6:40 P.M. MST. The Mets took the first game of the series8-5, scoring four runs off the D-backs bullpen.

Lineups:

Ketel Marte is out of the lineup for the second straight game due to lower back soreness. He was seen in the clubhouse today wearing a huge wrap around his entire torso. Gabriel Moreno is on the bench and Carson Kelly is starting for the third straight game but there is no known injury with him.

During the first month of the season the D-backs hit .300 with runners in scoring position, 4th best in the league. That allowed them to score 5.0 Runs per game despite just a .739 team OPS (14th in MLB) and hitting just 25 homers, (24th)

Since May 1 they've traded power for situational hitting. They have 76 homers since that date, 8th best in MLB, and a .775 OPS, 6th best. However they're hitting just .231 with runners in scoring position since that date, which ranks 26th in the league since May 1. The tradeoff has resulted in almost the exact same runs per game, 5.1, but a very different "feel" when watching the games.

In a perfect world you'd get both above average slugging and above average situational hitting. But if you can only have one, it's important to note that BA W/RISP is notoriously fickle, random, and unpredictable at times, whereas hitting for a high OPS is more indicative of the quality of a team's offense. Nothing correlates to team offense and runs scored more than OPS.

Pitching Matchup

Kodai Senga was a premier pitcher in the Japan major leagues for 11 years with Softbank of the NPB. He had a career record of 87-44, with 2.59 ERA. The 30 year old rookie signed a five-year, $75 million deal with the Mets this past off season. Senga throws a mid to upper 90's fastball, averaging 96 MPH and a devastating "Ghost" forkball that is virtually un-hittable. He also has a cutter and a sweeper

As is to be expected, his numbers are not quite as good in MLB, but he's still a dominant pitcher. He averages over 11 K/9 and batters are hitting just .209 with a .659 OPS against him. The one flaw in his game is walks as he leads the league in that category with 46, for a 5.1 BB/9 ratio. Oddly enough though he has five games where he's walked three or four batters yet has given up either zero or one run. He also has a couple of games where he's only walked one but got knocked around for four or five runs. So it's just not as simple as saying if he walks guys you can beat him. He's stubborn, and you might not.

Tommy Henry's peripherals aren't great as his K/BB ratio is well below league average and his HR/9 rate is much higher than league average. But he's been on a roll his last three starts, pitching 18.1 innings, giving up just four earned runs. He's walked five, and struck out 16 in this stretch while giving up three homers.

Henry has received the fourth highest run support per game started in MLB so far this year with 6.9 R/G. The next highest on the team is Zac Gallen, who is getting 5.2 R/GS.