Dylan Ray Has The Tools to Develop Into a Mid-Rotation Starter
This article is part of a series counting down the Diamondbacks' Top 30 prospects entering the 2024 season. These rankings are determined by Michael McDermott, in conjunction with the Inside the Diamondbacks staff.
Summary: Dylan Ray missed out on most of his college career at Alabama due to Tommy John surgery in 2020. Despite inconsistent results during the spring of 2022, a solid run at the Cape Cod League was enough for the D-backs to take a fourth round flyer on the big right-hander. That gamble has since paid off, as Ray enjoyed the breakthrough season he needed at Hillsboro to put his name on the prospect map. With the ideal build and diverse arsenal of major league quality pitches, he has the chance to develop into a solid No. 3 or 4 starter for Arizona.
Rank: 9
Age: 22
Height/Weight: 6'3" 230 lbs.
Throws: Right
Tools: Fastball 50, Curveball 50, Slider 50, Changeup 50, Command 45, Overall 45
ETA: 2025
What the D-backs are saying about him?
"He's a guy that our scouts had a lot of conviction in, in addition to our analysts on our data team. He's a right-hander that's been up to 96 mph. He's relieved at Alabama, but he's got kind of a starter mix -- so intriguing arm upside there. The overall strike quality is really good and we think he's got four pitches." - Scouting director Ian Rebhan, July 2022
2023 Recap: Ray opened up the year with High-A Hillsboro and immediately showed improved command another year further removed from Tommy John surgery. His strikeout and walk rates of 30% and 8% were excellent and he kept the ball in the yard with a solid 0.72 home runs per nine innings. Ray won the Northwest League Pitcher of the Month for July, which earned him a promotion to Double-A Amarillo. In three starts he got a taste of the harsh reality pitching in that ballpark and level, serving as a good learning experience for what to expect for 2024. The fact he was able to put up excellent peripherals after not much of a track record coming off the surgery was a massive step in his development and has him surging up the organization's prospect list.
2024 Expectations: Ray will begin the 2024 season with Double-A Amarillo, where his home ballpark inflates home runs moreso than any stadium in the minor leagues. It'll be important to watch his strikeout and walk rates and how they'll be affected by both the elevation and dry air. If he's able to show the willingness to continue to attack the strike zone and improve is overall command despite the deck being stacked against him at home, that should give the organization confidence in calling him up during the 2025 season.
Projection: Ray's combination of size and arsenal of pitches are ideal for a starting pitcher projection, although the lack of a carrying pitch suggests he's more likely to develop into a middle or bottom of the rotation starter. In their entire organization, he probably has the safest starting pitcher projection despite higher upside arms ahead of him. With the D-backs potentially losing their top two arms following the 2025 season, hitting on Dylan Ray as a prospect is almost imperative for the organization to keep their rotation filled.
