The Cleveland Guardians will not beat the Detroit Tigers unless they do this

Teams that have lost Game 1 of the Wild Card round have NEVER advanced to the divisional series. Here's what the Cleveland Guardians need to do this week.

Sep 27, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates after the Guardians beat the Texas Rangers and clinched a playoff berth at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images | Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Baseball’s hottest rivalry is getting renewed for October. Stephen Vogt’s ballclub did their best impression of The Undertaker’s sit up, as the Cleveland Guardians erased a 15.5 game divisional lead to take the AL Central. Of course, the same Detroit Tigers that blew that lead, sit on the other side.

For the second time in as many seasons, Cleveland and Detroit will meet up in the playoffs. Last season, bullpen games, grand slams and clutch hitting defined an iconic series in Cleveland sports history.

This season, Cleveland looks to do the unthinkable: beat Tarik Skubal three times in one month, this time with even more on the line. 

2025 marks the third time the Cleveland Guardians have played in the wild card round. Cleveland is no stranger to hosting the best-of-three series, as they did so in 2020 and 2022. The Guardians have also never played a deciding Game 3 in the wild card round. In 2020, Cleveland blew a late Game 2 lead to get swept by the Yankees, in 2022, Oscar Gonzalez’ extra innings homer off Corey Kluber avoided Game 3.

Since the MLB switched to the three wild card format full-time in 2022, only two of the twelve series have reached Game 3. 

Skubal will take the bump in Game 1 for Detroit. While the Guardians have the matchup advantage in a lot of spots, game one starter is not one of them. Cleveland will need either Gavin Williams or Tanner Bibee, who have both had excellent months, to pace Skubal.

Teams that win Game 1 of the Wild Card series? 12-0 in the series since 2022.

Two Guardians to watch against Skubal will be Jhonkensey Noel and Johnathan Rodriguez. Neither outfielder is known for their bat-to-ball skills, but both have shown a power stroke against left handed pitching in September. Noel homered off Skubal at Comerica Park a few weeks ago, and Rodriguez registered the most important homer of the regular season Saturday night. For Cleveland, it probably will not be stringing hits together to beat Skubal. Watch for a bloop and a blast if Skubal is to allow multiple runs. 

Jack Flaherty will likely go Game 2 for Detroit against the other of Williams and Bibee. The Tigers have lost all three starts to the Guardians that Flaherty has made this season, but all three of the losses cannot be pinned on the pitcher. Brayan Rocchio (3-9) and George Valera (2-5) are sneaky Guardians to watch outside of the usual suspects against Flaherty.

Rocchio’s walk-off home run Sunday may give the second baseman the confidence he needs to produce his second consecutive strong October. 

Get to Game 3 and anything can happen. Guessing pitching probables for Thursday is impossible for these two clubs. Cleveland has three equal options. Detroit is known for their bullpen games. Chaos will break loose if baseball is played Thursday.

If baseball history tells us anything, the wild card preview can be summed up really quickly: beat Skubal or else.