Why Gavin Williams, Not Tanner Bibee, Is Real Cleveland Guardians Ace

Gavin Williams had a not-so-great start to 2026, but his second start of the year showed Guardians fans and executives alike that he is the true ace of this ball club.

Tanner Bibee has been great, too, but it is hard to compare what Williams has done the past season.

Here is why everyone should be on board with Gavin Williams, not Tanner Bibee, being the ace of the Cleveland Guardians.

HE HAS BETTER NUMBERS

Sep 23, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams (32) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images | David Richard-Imagn Images

Tanner Bibee broke onto the scene in 2023, finishing second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. He posted a 3.9 WAR with a 10-4 record. His ERA was 2.98, and he had 141 strikeouts and 45 walks in 142 innings pitched, allowing just 13 home runs. Bibee’s ERA+ was all the way up at 143, which is exceptional.

Then, regression happened. His WAR in 2024 was 2.6. In 2025, it was 1.2. His ERA+ in 2024 dropped to 116 and to 99 in 2025. He gave up a career-high 27 home runs last year and walked 54 batters. This year, in two starts, Bibee is 0-1 with a 4.00 ERA, giving up four runs in nine innings pitched.

Meanwhile, Gavin Williams started a career-high 31 games last season and racked up a 3.8 WAR. His ERA was 3.06; he struck out 173 batters but walked 83 in 167.3 innings pitched. His ERA+ was an exceptional 137. This year, Williams is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA, striking out 17 batters and walking nine in 12 innings pitched.

On Wednesday against the Dodgers, Williams posted a line of seven innings, giving up two hits, three walks, no runs, and striking out 10. Coming off a shoulder injury from Opening Day, against this same Dodgers lineup, Bibee went four innings, giving up a run, two walks, and striking out four batters.

Baseball Savant shows a clear discrepancy between the two as well. Last year, Williams was in the 72nd percentile for Pitching Run Value. Bibee, meanwhile, was only in the 44th percentile.

HIS STUFF IS BETTER

Sep 30, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams (32) reacts after a strikeout on a check swing Detroit Tigers first base Spencer Torkelson (not pictured) in the sixth inning during game one of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-Imagn Images | David Dermer-Imagn Images

Gavin Williams is one of the best in baseball when it comes to his pitching run value. Most of that value comes from his breaking pitches. Williams ranked in the 96th percentile in 2025 in terms of breaking run value, according to Baseball Savant. Bibee has good stuff, too, ranking in the 77th percentile.

Williams’ offspeed run value is also much higher than Bibee’s. Williams is in the 56th percentile, while Bibee is in the 16th percentile. Williams is much more evaluable on the mound in terms of run value than Bibee is, no matter which pitches they throw.

Williams may walk more batters, but he also strikes out more batters. Gavin Williams had a whiff rate of 27.7%, compared to Bibee’s 23.8. Williams had a strikeout rate that ranked in the 65th percentile at 24.6%. Bibee was in the 40th percentile at 21.3%.

Bibee has been a mainstay for the Guardians since the day he stepped on the mound. He will continue to be their number one or two starter for as long as they have him.

Gavin Williams, though, is building on what he accomplished last year and is threatening Bibee as the ace of this club. Sure BIbee got the Opening Day start, but if it were a Game 7 situation, it is hard not to give Gavin Williams the nod over Bibee, given their recent performances.