New York Mets Projected Odds for the 2026 Season

What do FanGraphs’ projections say about the New York Mets’ chances in 2026?

Aug 13, 2025; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto (22) is greeted in the dugout after hitting a two run home run in the second inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images | Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The New York Mets were by far one of the most disappointing teams in 2025 after failing to make the playoffs.

Despite adding Juan Soto and bringing back much of the same roster that reached the National League Championship Series in 2024, they somehow got worse. Entering 2026, David Stearns took a decisive step by blowing up a core that consisted of Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Diaz.

The move shocked many at the beginning of the offseason and even sparked outrage among fans in Flushing. However, Stearns’ plan came to fruition in January when he acquired Freddy Peralta and Luis Robert Jr. via trade and signed Bo Bichette to a three-year deal.

Combined with earlier offseason additions like Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Marcus Semien, and Jorge Polanco, the Mets suddenly went from a laughingstock to a legitimate contender to dethrone the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And according to FanGraphs’ projected odds for the 2026 season, the numbers suggest that belief may be justified.

What FanGraphs projects for the Mets in 2026

The Mets have the third-best odds in baseball to make the playoffs and hold the fourth-best odds to win the World Series, per Fangraphs' 2026 projections pic.twitter.com/eKzJ6Dgp2J

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) February 4, 2026

According to FanGraphs’ projected odds for the 2026 season, the Mets are expected to finish with a 90–72 record. That would mark a seven-win improvement from last season, when they tied the Cincinnati Reds in the Wild Card race but missed the playoffs due to the tiebreaker.

In the National League East, the Mets are projected to be firmly in the mix. FanGraphs gives them a 33.5 percent chance to win the division, second only to the Atlanta Braves. New York finished 13 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies last season.

Read More: Insider Gives Interesting Consensus on Mets’ Offseason

However, the landscape looks much different entering 2026. The Braves are getting healthier, and the Mets aggressively added to their roster. Meanwhile, the Phillies had a relatively lackluster offseason outside of re-signing Kyle Schwarber. As a result, the Mets and Braves figure to challenge Philadelphia once again in what could be a heated division race.

The Miami Marlins also cannot be ignored, as they took a significant step forward last season and could do so again in 2026. The Washington Nationals, on the other hand, took a step back after trading away ace MacKenzie Gore and closer José A. Ferrer.

Mets’ Projected 2026 WAR via @Fangraphs pic.twitter.com/9yVUimulHs

— Dan Bartels (@DanBartels2) January 29, 2026

When it comes to simply reaching October, the outlook is even stronger. The Mets hold the third-best playoff odds in baseball at 80.3 percent, trailing only the Braves and the Los Angeles Dodgers. If FanGraphs’ projected model were to hold true, the Mets would host a Wild Card Series.

That optimism extends to the biggest stage as well. FanGraphs lists the Mets with the fourth-best odds to win the World Series, behind the Braves, Dodgers, and Seattle Mariners.

The Mets’ odds may come as a shock given where the team stood just a month ago, but it goes to show just how impactful their additions have been. In Freddy Peralta, they have their ace. Marcus Semien provides a veteran presence and a steady hand, Bo Bichette adds thump to the lineup, and Luis Robert Jr. brings Gold Glove defense in center field with immense offensive potential yet to be realized.

Now, all that’s left is for the team to prove the projections right on the field.

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